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Santarritense vs Novo Esporte - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Santarritense host Novo Esporte in the Mineiro 3. Little to choose between these two on current form. Santarritense have averaged 0.91 scored and 1.45 conceded recently, against Novo Esporte's 1.4 scored and 1.04 conceded. Head-to-head, Santarritense have won 1 to Novo Esporte's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Sep 29, 2022, ending 4:0. Model xG sits at 0.35 vs 2.62, favoring Novo Esporte. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Santarritense
20%
Draws
50%
Novo Esporte
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Novo Esporte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Novo Esporte lately — more wins on the board than Santarritense.
  • Model gives Novo Esporte a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Mineiro 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
Santarritense Clean Sheet 10%
Novo Esporte Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santarritense Novo Esporte
Matches Played 22 25
Wins 8 11
Draws 7 6
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 0.91 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 0.35 2.62
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2022 Mineiro 3
Novo Esporte vs Santarritense
4:0
Sep 25, 2022 Mineiro 3
Santarritense vs Novo Esporte
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santarritense 10 / 100
Novo Esporte 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santarritense Novo Esporte

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Novo Esporte Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Santarritense found the back of the net in 41% of recent matches (22 games).

Novo Esporte's defensive record shows goals conceded in 56% of 25 matches.

Recent resilience: Santarritense stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Santarritense VS Novo Esporte
0.2 Goals Scored 1.63
3.6 Goals Conceded 0.5
60% Over 1.5 63%
60% Over 2.5 50%
40% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Santarritense

(Home)
02 Oct
Inter de Minas
7 : 1
Santarritense
27 Sept
Santarritense
0 : 8
Venda Nova FC
21 Sept
Nacional de Muriae
3 : 0
Santarritense
29 Sept
Novo Esporte
4 : 0
Santarritense
25 Sept
Santarritense
2 : 1
Novo Esporte
Page 1 of 5

Novo Esporte

(Away)
03 Oct
Novo Esporte
0 : 0
Venda Nova FC
26 Sept
Nova Lavras
3 : 0
Novo Esporte
19 Sept
Novo Esporte
2 : 1
Inter de Minas
22 Nov
Paracatu
0 : 0
Novo Esporte
15 Nov
Novo Esporte
0 : 2
Coimbra Esporte Clube
Page 1 of 5

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nacional de Muriae 3 3 0 0 6:1 9
2 Venda Nova FC 3 2 1 0 10:1 7
3 Novo Esporte 3 1 1 1 2:4 4
4 Inter de Minas 3 1 0 2 8:4 3
5 Nova Lavras 3 1 0 2 5:4 3
6 Santarritense 3 0 0 3 1:18 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 (Final Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paracatu 3 3 0 0 10:1 9
2 Betim FC 2 3 3 0 0 5:0 9
3 Sao Joao del Rei 3 1 0 2 2:2 3
4 Funorte EC 3 1 0 2 1:6 3
5 Araxa 3 1 0 2 4:4 3
6 Siderurgica 3 0 0 3 0:9 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 (Final Group)