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Santos PA vs Belenense Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paraense A3 2025
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AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-2, with Santos PA advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Santos PA
30%
Draws
47%
Belenense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Belenense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Santos PA haven't matched Belenense's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Belenense's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Belenense arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Santos PA, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Santos PA Clean Sheet 10%
Belenense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santos PA Belenense
Matches Played 21 16
Wins 5 9
Draws 6 1
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1 1.94
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2025 Paraense A3
Belenense vs Santos PA
2:1
Nov 11, 2025 Paraense A3
Santos PA vs Belenense
4:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santos PA 10 / 100
Belenense 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santos PA Belenense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Belenense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Belenense has conceded goals in 69% of their last 16 outings.

Santos PA has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Santos PA scored in 48% of their last 21 outings.

Scoring Trends

Santos PA VS Belenense
1.5 Goals Scored 2.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Santos PA

(Home)
03 Jun
Urumajo
3 : 0
Santos PA
30 May
Santos PA
0 : 1
Urumajo
23 May
Canaa
0 : 0
Santos PA
19 May
Santos PA
3 : 1
Caete
09 May
Santos PA
2 : 2
Canaa
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Belenense

(Away)
28 Sept
Belenense
1 : 0
Gaviao
20 Sept
CA Vila Rica
2 : 2
Belenense
16 Sept
Belenense
3 : 2
Sport Belem
11 Sept
Belenense
8 : 0
CA Vila Rica
05 Sept
Sport Belem
5 : 1
Belenense
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Gaviao 2
Sport Belem 1
Tesla 1
Atletico Paraense 12
Paraense SC 3
Santos PA 4
Venus 2
Belenense 3
Semi-finals
Gaviao 2
Atletico Paraense 5
Santos PA 5
Belenense 4
Final
Atletico Paraense 1
Santos PA 0