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Sao Bernardo vs America MG

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estadio Primeiro de Maio
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Sub
Romisson In: Hyoran
Out: Romisson
19' Event
Elizari F.
Assist: Felipe Amaral
22'
Leo Alaba

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Sao Bernardo
20%
Draws
38%
America MG
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sao Bernardo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Sao Bernardo have won more games recently than America MG.
  • Win probability leans Sao Bernardo's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 20%
America MG Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Bernardo America MG
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 5
Draws 9 7
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 0.88 0.75
Goals Conceded 1 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Serie B
Sao Bernardo vs America MG
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Bernardo Compare

Top Goalscorer Davi D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

America MG Compare

Top Goalscorer Elizari F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Bernardo 42 / 100
America MG 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Bernardo America MG

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

America MG let in goals in 93% of their last 28 matches.

Sao Bernardo's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: America MG registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sao Bernardo VS America MG
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Criciuma1796220:1233
2Vila Nova FC1794425:1931
3Operario-PR1794422:1831
4Novorizontino1786328:1630
5EC Juventude1785417:829
6Fortaleza1784520:1728
7Sao Bernardo1775523:1626
8Sport Recife1768321:1526
9Goias1774618:2325
10Atletico GO1766519:1924
11Cuiaba1759314:1124
12Athletic Club1758416:1623
13Nautico1763821:2121
14Botafogo SP1755720:1820
15CRB1755726:3120
16Londrina1754825:2519
17Ceara1746715:2018
18Avai1744918:2416
19Ponte Preta17221311:338
20America MG17141211:287