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Sao Bernardo vs SER Caxias do Sul Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Copa Sul-Sudeste Estadio Primeiro de Maio, Sao Bernardo
Sao Bernardo Logo

Sao Bernardo

1 - 1
FT
SER Caxias do Sul Logo

SER Caxias do Sul

Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Helder Maciel
9'
Sub
Davi D. In: Jemerson
Out: Davi D.
37'
Roberto
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Sao Bernardo
20%
Draws
23%
SER Caxias do Sul
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sao Bernardo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Sao Bernardo's 1.34 goals per match outpaces what SER Caxias do Sul have produced (0.83).
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Sao Bernardo taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Sao Bernardo, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 68%
SER Caxias do Sul Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Bernardo SER Caxias do Sul
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 10 9
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.34 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.15
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
Sao Bernardo vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 Serie C
Sao Bernardo vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Serie C
SER Caxias do Sul vs Sao Bernardo
0:0
May 18, 2025 Serie C
Sao Bernardo vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:0
Aug 4, 2024 Serie C
Sao Bernardo vs SER Caxias do Sul
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Bernardo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

SER Caxias do Sul Compare

Top Goalscorer Ravanelli
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.05
Avg xA / game 0.64

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Bernardo 95 / 100
SER Caxias do Sul 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Bernardo SER Caxias do Sul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sao Bernardo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Bernardo scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

SER Caxias do Sul let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Sao Bernardo remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: SER Caxias do Sul registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sao Bernardo VS SER Caxias do Sul
1.5 Goals Scored 0.8
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.2
88% Over 1.5 80%
50% Over 2.5 40%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Bernardo

(Home)
02 Oct
Sao Bernardo
3 : 1
CRB
25 Sept
Novorizontino
0 : 0
Sao Bernardo
19 Sept
Sao Bernardo
1 : 0
Atletico GO
14 Sept
America MG
0 : 2
Sao Bernardo
10 Sept
Sao Bernardo
1 : 2
Londrina
Page 1 of 6

SER Caxias do Sul

(Away)
29 Aug
SER Caxias do Sul
0 : 0
Internacional de Limeira
22 Aug
Santa Cruz
2 : 0
SER Caxias do Sul
16 Aug
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 2
Figueirense
09 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
SER Caxias do Sul
26 Jul
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 2
Botafogo PB
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chapecoense-SC 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
2 Novorizontino 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
3 SER Caxias do Sul 6 3 2 1 6:3 11
4 Cianorte 6 2 2 2 9:10 8
5 Tombense 6 1 2 3 11:13 5
6 Sampaio Correa FE 6 1 2 3 7:9 5
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Avai 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
2 Volta Redonda 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
3 Operario-PR 6 2 3 1 5:4 9
4 America MG 6 2 2 2 11:11 8
5 EC Juventude 6 1 1 4 4:9 4
6 Sao Bernardo 6 0 3 3 6:9 3
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)