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Sao Caetano vs Nacional SP Prediction & H2H Stats

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Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Jeovan
44' Event
Caiuby F.
55' Event
Jeovan

AI Match Summary

Sao Caetano in this Paulista A4 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sao Caetano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Sao Caetano
20%
Draws
70%
Nacional SP
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nacional SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Nacional SP haven't matched Sao Caetano's recent run of results.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Nacional SP taking it.
  • Regular Paulista A4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Sao Caetano Clean Sheet 21%
Nacional SP Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Caetano Nacional SP
Matches Played 36 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 10 8
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.03 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Paulista A4
Sao Caetano vs Nacional SP
3:0
Apr 5, 2025 Paulista A4
Sao Caetano vs Nacional SP
1:1
Mar 29, 2025 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Sao Caetano
3:0
Jan 22, 2025 Paulista A4
Nacional SP vs Sao Caetano
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Caetano Compare

Top Goalscorer Jeovan
2 Goals
Assists Leader Caiuby F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Nacional SP Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Caetano 10 / 100
Nacional SP 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Caetano Nacional SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional SP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacional SP's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Sao Caetano found the back of the net in 56% of recent matches (36 games).

Solid form: Sao Caetano remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sao Caetano VS Nacional SP
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 25%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Caetano

(Home)
05 Sept
Primavera EC
7 : 0
Sao Caetano
29 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 5
Primavera EC
22 Aug
Sao Jose EC
0 : 0
Sao Caetano
17 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 1
Santo Andre
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 8

Nacional SP

(Away)
04 Apr
Nacional SP
0 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
28 Mar
Barretos EC
1 : 0
Nacional SP
25 Mar
Nacional SP
0 : 0
ECUS SP
21 Mar
Nacional SP
4 : 1
Colorado Caieiras
18 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
2 : 3
Nacional SP
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)