Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sao Francisco vs Bragantino PA

Brazil Brazil

Paraense 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sao Francisco play Bragantino PA in the Paraense 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sao Francisco averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. Bragantino PA averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. In past meetings, Sao Francisco won 1, Bragantino PA won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 2, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Sao Francisco and 1.19 for Bragantino PA. This points to a Bragantino PA double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Sao Francisco
15%
Draws
44%
Bragantino PA
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bragantino PA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Sao Francisco picked up more points recently compared to Bragantino PA.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Sao Francisco Clean Sheet 20%
Bragantino PA Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Francisco Bragantino PA
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 10 9
Draws 5 8
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 1.1 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 2, 2025 Paraense
Sao Francisco vs Bragantino PA
1:2
Mar 23, 2024 Copa Grao Para
Sao Francisco vs Bragantino PA
6:4
Jan 28, 2024 Paraense
Bragantino PA vs Sao Francisco
2:1
Mar 5, 2023 Paraense
Bragantino PA vs Sao Francisco
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Francisco Compare

Top Goalscorer Tracateua
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Bragantino PA Compare

Top Goalscorer Nilson Junior
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gileard
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Francisco 41 / 100
Bragantino PA 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Francisco Bragantino PA

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Bragantino PA or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sao Francisco attacking → ← attacking Bragantino PA

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Francisco scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Bragantino PA let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.25 goals.

Sao Francisco went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Bragantino PA lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 35
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Remo852117:417
2Paysandu PA852115:717
3Bragantino PA852111:617
4Castanhal834110:713
5Tuna Luso832312:1211
6Aguia De Maraba83239:1011
7Capitao Poco82519:911
8Santa Rosa83147:910
9Cameta83146:1110
10Sao Francisco82069:166
11Independente81345:126
12Caete81075:123
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Paysandu PA852115:717
2Cameta83146:1110
3Sao Francisco82069:166
4Caete81075:123
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Remo852117:417
2Bragantino PA852111:617
3Castanhal834110:713
4Independente81345:126
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tuna Luso832312:1211
2Aguia De Maraba83239:1011
3Capitao Poco82519:911
4Santa Rosa83147:910