Sport Picks
Match Events
25'
25'
Douglas Lima
45'
45'
Aldair
45'
45'
Patrickao
AI Match Summary
Sao Goncalo in this Copa Rio tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Sao Goncalo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Sao Goncalo have won more games recently than Serrano FC.
- 90% — that's where the model lands on Sao Goncalo taking it.
- Sao Goncalo have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Sao Goncalo, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Sao Goncalo Clean Sheet 68%
Serrano FC Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sao Goncalo | Serrano FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 31 |
| Wins | 12 | 11 |
| Draws | 10 | 11 |
| Losses | 9 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 0.63 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 27, 2026 Carioca 2
Serrano FC vs Sao Goncalo
0:3
Jun 24, 2026 Copa Rio
Sao Goncalo vs Serrano FC
3:2
Jun 17, 2026 Copa Rio
Serrano FC vs Sao Goncalo
0:0
Oct 26, 2024 Carioca B1
Serrano FC vs Sao Goncalo
0:2
Nov 11, 2020 Carioca 2
Serrano FC vs Sao Goncalo
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sao Goncalo Compare
Top Goalscorer Aldair
1 Goals Assists Leader Patrickao
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32
Serrano FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Douglas Lima
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sao Goncalo 95 / 100
Serrano FC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sao Goncalo Serrano FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick SAO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sao Goncalo went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Sao Goncalo scored in 65% of their last 31 games.
Serrano FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 31 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Sao Goncalo VS Serrano FC
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Sao Goncalo
(Home) 20 Jul
Volta Redonda
0 : 0 Sao Goncalo
16 Jul
Sao Goncalo
2 : 1 Volta Redonda
04 Jul
Sao Goncalo
2 : 1 Audax RJ
27 Jun
Serrano FC
0 : 3 Sao Goncalo
24 Jun
Sao Goncalo
3 : 2 Serrano FC
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16 Jul
Sao Goncalo
2 : 1 Volta Redonda
04 Jul
Sao Goncalo
2 : 1 Audax RJ
24 Jun
Sao Goncalo
3 : 2 Serrano FC
20 Jun
Sao Goncalo
2 : 0 Bonsucesso
06 Jun
Sao Goncalo
0 : 0 Olaria
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Serrano FC
(Away) 04 Jul
America RJ
5 : 0 Serrano FC
27 Jun
Serrano FC
0 : 3 Sao Goncalo
24 Jun
Sao Goncalo
3 : 2 Serrano FC
20 Jun
Resende
0 : 0 Serrano FC
17 Jun
Serrano FC
0 : 0 Sao Goncalo
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04 Jul
America RJ
5 : 0 Serrano FC
24 Jun
Sao Goncalo
3 : 2 Serrano FC
20 Jun
Resende
0 : 0 Serrano FC
06 Jun
Perolas Negras
2 : 1 Serrano FC
23 May
Audax RJ
1 : 2 Serrano FC
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Americano2
Macae1
TBD-
Portuguesa RJ-
Cabofriense1
Bonsucesso3
TBD-
Madureira-
Perolas Negras10
Santa Cruz RJ1
TBD-
Marica-
CEAC/Araruama2
Sao Cristovao1
TBD-
Boavista-
Olaria6
Duque de Caxias0
TBD-
Bangu-
America RJ-
Goytacaz-
TBD-
Nova Iguacu-
Sao Goncalo3
Serrano FC2
TBD-
Volta Redonda-
Resende11
Belford Roxo2
TBD-
Sampaio Correa FE-
1/8-finals
Americano1
Portuguesa RJ2
Bonsucesso3
Madureira4
Perolas Negras0
Marica3
CEAC/Araruama0
Boavista5
Olaria3
Bangu1
America RJ1
Nova Iguacu2
Sao Goncalo2
Volta Redonda1
Resende0
Sampaio Correa FE3
Quarter-finals
Portuguesa RJ-
Madureira-
Marica-
Boavista-
Olaria-
Nova Iguacu-
Sao Goncalo-
Sampaio Correa FE-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-