Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sao Joao de Ver vs Agueda

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2020/2021 game between Sao Joao de Ver and Agueda finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sao Joao de Ver.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Sao Joao de Ver
30%
Draws
23%
Agueda
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sao Joao de Ver

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sao Joao de Ver come out ahead of Agueda on wins alone.
  • Sao Joao de Ver are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 17%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Sao Joao de Ver Clean Sheet 68%
Agueda Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Joao de Ver Agueda
Matches Played 32 24
Wins 10 4
Draws 12 5
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 0.84 0.79
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Agueda vs Sao Joao de Ver
0:1
Jan 3, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Sao Joao de Ver vs Agueda
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Joao de Ver 59 / 100
Agueda 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Joao de Ver Agueda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sao Joao de Ver Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Joao de Ver scored in 66% of their last 32 games.

Agueda's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 24 matches.

Away concern: Agueda has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Sao Joao de Ver VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Joao de Ver

(Home)
13 Sept
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
06 Sept
Sao Joao de Ver
0 : 0
AD Marco 09
30 Aug
Florgrade
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
22 Aug
Trofense
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
16 Aug
Sao Joao de Ver
1 : 3
AD Fafe
Page 1 of 7

Agueda

(Away)
01 Oct
Agueda
0 : 1
Pevidem
10 Apr
Sanjoanense
1 : 0
Agueda
03 Apr
Agueda
0 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
21 Mar
Agueda
0 : 2
Castro Daire
12 Mar
Agueda
0 : 0
Canelas 2010
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Anadia 22 13 5 4 39:15 44
2 Canelas 2010 22 12 5 5 28:13 41
3 Lusitania FC 22 11 6 5 38:26 39
4 Sao Joao de Ver 22 10 8 4 30:14 38
5 Sanjoanense 22 8 12 2 26:13 36
6 Castro Daire 22 10 5 7 23:24 35
7 Valadares Gaia FC 22 10 3 9 36:27 33
8 SC Espinho 22 9 4 9 33:22 31
9 Beira Mar 22 9 4 9 30:23 31
10 Agueda 22 4 5 13 17:28 17
11 Lusitano FCV 22 4 4 14 17:34 16
12 Vila Cortez 22 1 1 20 8:86 4
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2020/2021 (Promotion Group)
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2020/2021 (Qualification)