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Sao Jose EC vs Ferroviaria

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A2 Estadio Martins Pereira
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sao Jose EC play Ferroviaria in the Paulista A2. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sao Jose EC averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1 conceded. Ferroviaria averaged 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. In past meetings, Sao Jose EC won 1, Ferroviaria won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 29, 2026 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Sao Jose EC and 0.63 for Ferroviaria. This points to a Ferroviaria double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Sao Jose EC
22%
Draws
41%
Ferroviaria
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Ferroviaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Sao Jose EC picked up more points recently compared to Ferroviaria.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 0.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Sao Jose EC Clean Sheet 29%
Ferroviaria Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Jose EC Ferroviaria
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 13
Draws 5 8
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.37 1.14
Goals Conceded 1 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Paulista A2
Ferroviaria vs Sao Jose EC
4:1
Mar 25, 2026 Paulista A2
Sao Jose EC vs Ferroviaria
0:1
Feb 18, 2026 Paulista A2
Sao Jose EC vs Ferroviaria
1:1
Feb 16, 2025 Paulista A2
Ferroviaria vs Sao Jose EC
0:1
Mar 9, 2024 Paulista A2
Sao Jose EC vs Ferroviaria
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Jose EC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Ferroviaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Albano
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Jose EC 39 / 100
Ferroviaria 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Jose EC Ferroviaria

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ferroviaria or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sao Jose EC attacking → ← attacking Ferroviaria

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Jose EC scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Ferroviaria let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Sao Jose EC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Ferroviaria lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 47
2.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Votuporanguense641113:513
2Ituano63127:810
3Piracicaba62226:48
4Agua Santa60242:112
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ferroviaria64029:512
2Juventus-SP64027:412
3Sao Jose EC63039:79
4Sertaozinho61054:133