Sport Picks

Stadium Background

SAO Jose vs Independente AP

Brazil Brazil

Amapaense Estádio Augusto Antunes
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Willian Fazendinha
82' Event
Risuenho J.
90' Event
Aleilson A.

AI Match Summary

SAO Jose host Independente AP in the Amapaense. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: SAO Jose at 1.63 goals for, 1.13 against; Independente AP at 1.63 for, 0.75 against. Past meetings favor SAO Jose slightly — 2-0-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 23, 2026, ending 2:2. The numbers (1.19 xG vs 1.38) point toward Independente AP. Independente AP in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
SAO Jose
39%
Draws
30%
Independente AP
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Independente AP has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to SAO Jose.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
  • Cup tournament structure in Amapaense increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
SAO Jose Clean Sheet 17%
Independente AP Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SAO Jose Independente AP
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 9 14
Draws 9 12
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.63 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2026 Amapaense
SAO Jose vs Independente AP
2:2
Mar 20, 2026 Amapaense
Independente AP vs SAO Jose
2:2
Mar 17, 2026 Amapaense
Independente AP vs SAO Jose
1:2
Aug 20, 2015 Amapaense
SAO Jose vs Independente AP
0:0
Aug 19, 2013 Amapaense
Independente AP vs SAO Jose
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SAO Jose Compare

Top Goalscorer Willian Fazendinha
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Independente AP Compare

Top Goalscorer Risuenho J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aleilson A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SAO Jose 31 / 100
Independente AP 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SAO Jose Independente AP

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SAO Jose scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Independente AP let in goals in 68% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

SAO Jose went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Independente AP lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SAO Jose VS Independente AP
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
SAO Jose4
Independente AP4
Oratorio2
Santos AP3
Final
SAO Jose0
Santos AP4