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Sao Martinho vs Machico

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Castro D.
31' Event
Lourenco O.
57' Event
Moreira N.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 game between Sao Martinho and Machico finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Machico.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Sao Martinho
30%
Draws
37%
Machico
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Machico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Machico come out ahead of Sao Martinho on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 60.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 7%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Sao Martinho Clean Sheet 19%
Machico Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Martinho Machico
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 10 13
Draws 4 9
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 0.87 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 0.68 1.27
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Sao Martinho vs Machico
1:2
Oct 26, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Machico vs Sao Martinho
0:1
Aug 30, 2025 Taça de Portugal
Sao Martinho vs Machico
1:2
Sep 11, 2021 Taça de Portugal
Machico vs Sao Martinho
0:5
Sep 9, 2018 Taça de Portugal
Sao Martinho vs Machico
6:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Martinho Compare

Top Goalscorer Moreira N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.52
Avg xA / game 0.34

Machico Compare

Top Goalscorer Castro D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lourenco O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.71

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Martinho 32 / 100
Machico 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Martinho Machico

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Machico Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Sao Martinho's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: Sao Martinho remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Machico has conceded goals in 59% of their last 34 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sao Martinho VS Machico
0.86 Goals Scored 1.25
1.29 Goals Conceded 0.5
71% Over 1.5 50%
43% Over 2.5 38%
14% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Martinho

(Home)
18 Apr
Sao Martinho
3 : 1
Desportivo Moncao
12 Apr
SC Mirandela
2 : 0
Sao Martinho
04 Apr
Sao Martinho
2 : 0
CD Ribeira Brava
22 Mar
Celoricense
0 : 0
Sao Martinho
15 Mar
Sao Martinho
0 : 1
Vilaverdense FC
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Machico

(Away)
13 Sept
FC Alpendorada
1 : 2
Machico
04 Sept
SC Salgueiros
1 : 1
Machico
30 Aug
Machico
2 : 3
Camacha
23 Aug
Beira Mar
0 : 2
Machico
15 Aug
Machico
0 : 0
Estrela Calheta
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 GD Braganca 26 14 6 6 41:29 48
2 SC Vianense 26 14 6 6 49:28 48
3 Brito 26 14 4 8 36:24 46
4 Celoricense 26 11 9 6 35:23 42
5 AD Limianos 26 11 8 7 35:32 41
6 Tirsense 26 9 13 4 31:22 40
7 Camacha 26 9 9 8 34:26 36
8 Chaves B 26 9 9 8 40:29 36
9 Machico 26 10 6 10 28:30 36
10 Sao Martinho 26 10 4 12 22:31 34
11 SC Mirandela 26 10 2 14 21:29 32
12 Vilaverdense FC 26 4 9 13 15:31 21
13 CD Ribeira Brava 26 4 8 14 20:46 20
14 Desportivo Moncao 26 4 5 17 26:53 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)