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SAO Mateus vs GEL

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Capixaba 2009
SAO Mateus Logo

SAO Mateus

3 - 1
FT
GEL Logo

GEL

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Capixaba 2009 game between SAO Mateus and GEL finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SAO Mateus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
SAO Mateus
15%
Draws
65%
GEL
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: GEL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and SAO Mateus come out ahead of GEL on wins alone.
  • GEL are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 26%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
SAO Mateus Clean Sheet 10%
GEL Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SAO Mateus GEL
Matches Played 39 32
Wins 8 6
Draws 5 7
Losses 26 19
Goals Scored 0.85 0.88
Goals Conceded 2.13 2.47
Expected Goals (xG) 2.56 2.15
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2009 Capixaba
GEL vs SAO Mateus
0:2
Feb 14, 2009 Capixaba
SAO Mateus vs GEL
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SAO Mateus 10 / 100
GEL 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SAO Mateus GEL

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GEL's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

SAO Mateus's goal record stands at 51% scoring rate across 39 recent games.

Solid form: SAO Mateus remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

SAO Mateus VS GEL
1 Goals Scored 0.63
3.67 Goals Conceded 4.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 50%
67% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

SAO Mateus

(Home)
26 Oct
CTE Colatina
0 : 3
SAO Mateus
19 Oct
SAO Mateus
0 : 6
Linhares Futebol Clube
16 Oct
Pinheiros
5 : 0
SAO Mateus
03 Oct
SAO Mateus
0 : 6
Vilavelhense
28 Sept
SAO Mateus
1 : 5
CTE Colatina
Page 1 of 8

GEL

(Away)
29 Aug
GEL
0 : 1
Audax Sao Mateus
26 Aug
Linhares Futebol Clube
0 : 1
GEL
18 Aug
Doze Futebol Clube
1 : 2
GEL
14 Aug
GEL
6 : 0
CTE Colatina
01 Aug
Audax Sao Mateus
0 : 0
GEL
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SAO Mateus 18 11 3 4 28:21 36
2 Rio Branco ES 18 8 7 3 35:21 31
3 Jaguare 18 9 3 6 30:25 30
4 Vilavelhense 18 8 4 6 29:27 28
5 Linhares Futebol Clube 18 8 3 7 18:19 27
6 Desportiva Ferroviaria 18 6 4 8 26:24 22
7 Rio Bananal FC 18 6 3 9 22:26 21
8 GEL 18 6 2 10 24:33 20
9 Serra 18 5 4 9 32:39 19
10 Colatinense 18 5 3 10 25:34 18
Promotion - Campeonato Capixaba 2009 (Play Offs)