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Sao Paulo vs Botafogo RJ

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Estadio Do MorumBIS
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Luciano
27'
Luciano
27'
Justino G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A Betano game between Sao Paulo and Botafogo RJ finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Sao Paulo
40%
Draws
29%
Botafogo RJ
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Botafogo RJ's 1.75 goals per match outpaces what Sao Paulo have produced (1).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Serie A Betano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 15%
Botafogo RJ Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Paulo Botafogo RJ
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 13 13
Draws 7 7
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Botafogo RJ
1:1
Sep 14, 2025 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Botafogo RJ
1:0
Apr 16, 2025 Serie A Betano
Botafogo RJ vs Sao Paulo
2:2
Dec 8, 2024 Serie A Betano
Botafogo RJ vs Sao Paulo
2:1
Sep 26, 2024 Copa Libertadores
Sao Paulo vs Botafogo RJ
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Paulo Compare

Top Goalscorer Luciano
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Botafogo RJ Compare

Top Goalscorer Barrera J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Paulo 31 / 100
Botafogo RJ 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Paulo Botafogo RJ

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Botafogo RJ let in goals in 85% of their last 27 matches.

Sao Paulo's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Sao Paulo remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sao Paulo VS Botafogo RJ
1 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1894528:2331
4Athletico-PR1893624:1830
5Bragantino1892725:1929
6Bahia1775525:2326
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Botafogo RJ1874733:3225
10Vitoria1874722:2525
11Atletico-MG1873822:2324
12Corinthians1866618:1924
13Cruzeiro1866624:2824
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Gremio1856720:2321
16Santos1956827:3121
17Vasco1955922:3020
18Remo1846821:2918
19Mirassol1744918:2416
20Chapecoense-SC17161017:339