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Sao Paulo vs Millonarios

South America South America

Copa Sudamericana Estadio Do MorumBIS
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Luciano
Assist: Bobadilla D.
30'
Mosquera S.
47'
Calleri J.

AI Match Summary

The Copa Sudamericana game between Sao Paulo and Millonarios finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Sao Paulo
40%
Draws
29%
Millonarios
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Sao Paulo have managed 1 goals a game lately — Millonarios are scoring more at 2.75.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 10%
Millonarios Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Paulo Millonarios
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 13
Draws 6 8
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1 2.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Sao Paulo vs Millonarios
1:1
Apr 29, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Millonarios vs Sao Paulo
0:0
Oct 24, 2007 Copa Sudamericana
Millonarios vs Sao Paulo
2:0
Oct 10, 2007 Copa Sudamericana
Sao Paulo vs Millonarios
0:1
Sep 27, 1974 Copa Libertadores
Sao Paulo vs Millonarios
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Paulo Compare

Top Goalscorer Luciano
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Millonarios Compare

Top Goalscorer Hurtado J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Paulo 30 / 100
Millonarios 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Paulo Millonarios

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sao Paulo scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Millonarios let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Sao Paulo has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sao Paulo VS Millonarios
1 Goals Scored 2.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Macara62406:310
2Tigre62318:59
3America De Cali62316:59
4Alianza Atl.60242:92
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Atletico-MG63128:610
2Cienciano62225:78
3Juventud614110:77
4Academia Puerto Cabello62136:97
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sao Paulo63306:112
2O Higgins63128:610
3Millonarios62227:78
4Boston River61055:123
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Recoleta61506:58
2Santos61418:67
3San Lorenzo61416:57
4Dep. Cuenca61323:76
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Botafogo RJ651015:516
2Caracas62319:99
3Racing Club622211:98
4Independiente60063:150
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Montevideo City641111:513
2Gremio63218:311
3Deportivo Riestra61234:105
4Palestino60331:63
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Olimpia Asuncion641110:613
2Vasco631210:610
3A. Italiano62137:97
4Barracas Central60332:83
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1River Plate64209:314
2Bragantino631212:510
3Carabobo63036:59
4Blooming60153:171