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Sao Paulo vs Vasco - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
12:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sao Paulo host Vasco in the Serie A Betano. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Vasco have shipped 1.1 goals a game lately, while Sao Paulo have conceded 1.14 and scored 1.03. Head-to-head, Sao Paulo have won 2 to Vasco's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 18, 2026, ending 2:1. xG projections (0.63 - 1.50) back Vasco to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Sao Paulo
20%
Draws
61%
Vasco
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vasco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Vasco carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Vasco's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie A Betano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 16%
Vasco Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Paulo Vasco
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 13
Draws 9 8
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.03 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Serie A Betano
Vasco vs Sao Paulo
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Serie A Betano
Vasco vs Sao Paulo
0:2
Jun 13, 2025 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Vasco
1:3
Oct 17, 2024 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Vasco
3:0
Jun 23, 2024 Serie A Betano
Vasco vs Sao Paulo
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Paulo 10 / 100
Vasco 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Paulo Vasco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vasco Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Sao Paulo's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Vasco has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Sao Paulo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sao Paulo VS Vasco
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Paulo

(Home)
08 Oct
Cruzeiro
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
02 Oct
Sao Paulo
1 : 2
Santos
20 Sept
Sao Paulo
1 : 0
Internacional
16 Sept
Sao Paulo
1 : 1
Boca Juniors
12 Sept
Palmeiras
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
Page 1 of 6

Vasco

(Away)
07 Oct
Botafogo RJ
1 : 2
Vasco
19 Sept
Vasco
5 : 0
Coritiba
15 Sept
Vasco
2 : 0
Santa Fe
12 Sept
Gremio
1 : 2
Vasco
08 Sept
Santa Fe
0 : 0
Vasco
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 29 18 7 4 57:25 61
2 Palmeiras 29 17 9 3 48:21 60
3 Fluminense 29 14 9 6 48:36 51
4 Athletico-PR 29 14 8 7 45:34 50
5 Cruzeiro 29 14 6 9 44:40 48
6 Bahia 29 12 10 7 43:36 46
7 Atletico-MG 29 12 8 9 39:34 44
8 Santos 29 11 9 9 45:43 42
9 Coritiba 29 10 8 11 37:47 38
10 Bragantino 29 10 7 12 34:33 37
11 Sao Paulo 29 10 6 13 33:34 36
12 Vitoria 29 10 6 13 32:42 36
13 Botafogo RJ 29 9 8 12 42:47 35
14 Vasco 28 9 7 12 36:42 34
15 Mirassol 29 8 9 12 34:43 33
16 Corinthians 29 8 8 13 30:34 32
17 Internacional 29 7 10 12 32:37 31
18 Gremio 29 7 9 13 31:39 30
19 Remo 29 5 9 15 33:48 24
20 Chapecoense-SC 28 3 9 16 29:57 18
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)