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Sao Paulo W vs Ferroviaria W

Brazil Brazil

Brasileiro Women Estadio do Caninde
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sao Paulo W play Ferroviaria W in the Brasileiro Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sao Paulo W averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Ferroviaria W averaged 1.97 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. In past meetings, Sao Paulo W won 1, Ferroviaria W won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 14, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Sao Paulo W and 1.56 for Ferroviaria W. This points to a Ferroviaria W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Sao Paulo W
27%
Draws
39%
Ferroviaria W
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Ferroviaria W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Sao Paulo W picked up more points recently compared to Ferroviaria W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Sao Paulo W Clean Sheet 15%
Ferroviaria W Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Paulo W Ferroviaria W
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 17
Draws 4 8
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.55 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.03 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Brasileiro Women
Sao Paulo W vs Ferroviaria W
0:1
Nov 16, 2025 Paulista Women
Sao Paulo W vs Ferroviaria W
1:1
Aug 19, 2025 Paulista Women
Ferroviaria W vs Sao Paulo W
1:0
Aug 16, 2025 Brasileiro Women
Sao Paulo W vs Ferroviaria W
2:1
Aug 9, 2025 Brasileiro Women
Ferroviaria W vs Sao Paulo W
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Paulo W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Ferroviaria W Compare

Top Goalscorer Julia Beatriz
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Paulo W 34 / 100
Ferroviaria W 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Paulo W Ferroviaria W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ferroviaria W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sao Paulo W attacking → ← attacking Ferroviaria W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Paulo W scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Ferroviaria W let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Sao Paulo W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Ferroviaria W lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 59
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Corinthians W1291231:1328
2Palmeiras W1283127:1027
3Sao Paulo W1282219:826
4Ferroviaria W1264219:1222
5CR Flamengo W1264219:1322
6Bahia W1263322:1621
7Cruzeiro W1256123:1421
8Internacional W1262413:1020
9Gremio W1252517:1217
10Bragantino W1252519:2017
11Fluminense W1244414:1416
12Santos W1235412:1514
13Atletico-MG W1233614:1612
14EC Juventude W122377:129
15Mixto W121478:247
16America Mineiro W121386:256
17Botafogo RJ W111287:225
18Vitoria W110387:283