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Saprissa vs Liberia

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Ricardo Saprissa Aymá, San José
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Match Events

26'
Torres E.
38'
Molina Y.
45'
Ruiz J.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Saprissa advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Saprissa
20%
Draws
47%
Liberia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Liberia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Saprissa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Saprissa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Saprissa, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Saprissa Clean Sheet 20%
Liberia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Saprissa Liberia
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 22 13
Draws 4 7
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 2.26 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Liberia
2:0
May 3, 2026 Primera Division
Liberia vs Saprissa
1:1
Apr 12, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Liberia
1:2
Mar 29, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Saprissa vs Liberia
5:1
Mar 26, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Liberia vs Saprissa
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Saprissa Compare

Top Goalscorer Brenes J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rodriguez A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Liberia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Saprissa 32 / 100
Liberia 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Saprissa Liberia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Saprissa scored in 91% of their last 35 games.

Defensive concern: Liberia conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Saprissa has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Saprissa VS Liberia
1.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Saprissa

(Home)
17 Sept
Cartagines
3 : 2
Saprissa
13 Sept
Sporting FC
4 : 2
Saprissa
10 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 2
Cartagines
06 Sept
Alajuelense
0 : 2
Saprissa
31 Aug
Saprissa
2 : 1
Escorpiones
Page 1 of 7

Liberia

(Away)
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0
Liberia
03 May
Liberia
1 : 1
Saprissa
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
22 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 1
Liberia
18 Apr
Liberia
1 : 0
Cartagines
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Herediano 1
Cartagines 0
Saprissa 3
Liberia 1
Final
Herediano 3
Saprissa 2