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Saprissa vs Liberia

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Ricardo Saprissa Aymá, San José
Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Torres E.
38'
Molina Y.
45'
Ruiz J.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Saprissa advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Saprissa
40%
Draws
29%
Liberia
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Saprissa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Saprissa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Saprissa, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Saprissa Clean Sheet 18%
Liberia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Saprissa Liberia
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 17 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 2.88 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Liberia
2:0
May 3, 2026 Primera Division
Liberia vs Saprissa
1:1
Apr 12, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Liberia
1:2
Mar 29, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Saprissa vs Liberia
5:1
Mar 26, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Liberia vs Saprissa
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Saprissa Compare

Top Goalscorer Brenes J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rodriguez A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

Liberia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Saprissa 32 / 100
Liberia 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Saprissa Liberia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Saprissa scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Liberia conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Saprissa has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Saprissa VS Liberia
2.88 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Saprissa

(Home)
18 Jul
Herediano
1 : 0
Saprissa
17 May
Herediano
2 : 0
Saprissa
14 May
Saprissa
2 : 1
Herediano
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0
Liberia
03 May
Liberia
1 : 1
Saprissa
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Liberia

(Away)
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0
Liberia
03 May
Liberia
1 : 1
Saprissa
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
22 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 1
Liberia
18 Apr
Liberia
1 : 0
Cartagines
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Herediano1
Cartagines0
Saprissa3
Liberia1
Final
Herediano3
Saprissa2