Sport Picks
Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL League One Premier Sports Campus, Lakewood Ranch, FL 
Match Events
18'
18'
Rosa A.
27'
27'
Hernandez O.
(Penalty)
43'
43'
Terzaghi E.
Assist: Rosa A.
AI Match Summary
The USL League One game between Sarasota Paradise and Chattanooga Red Wolves finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sarasota Paradise.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
20%
23%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sarasota Paradise
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Chattanooga Red Wolves carry the better recent record into this one.
- Sarasota Paradise are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Sarasota Paradise Clean Sheet 20%
Chattanooga Red Wolves Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sarasota Paradise | Chattanooga Red Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.62 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.68 | 1.48 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 19, 2026 USL League One
Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves
3:2
May 9, 2026 USL League One
Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Sarasota Paradise
4:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sarasota Paradise Compare
Top Goalscorer Rosa A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Terzaghi E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Chattanooga Red Wolves Compare
Top Goalscorer Mercer G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sarasota Paradise 85 / 100
Chattanooga Red Wolves 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sarasota Paradise Chattanooga Red Wolves
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sarasota Paradise Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 5.00 goals.
Sarasota Paradise's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Chattanooga Red Wolves let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.
Recent resilience: Sarasota Paradise stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Sarasota Paradise VS Chattanooga Red Wolves
2.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Sarasota Paradise
(Home) 10 Oct
Sarasota Paradise
3 : 2 Richmond Kickers
03 Oct
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 3 Charlotte Independence
26 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 4 Sarasota Paradise
19 Sept
Sarasota Paradise
6 : 0 Greenville Triumph
12 Sept
Forward Madison
1 : 1 Sarasota Paradise
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Sarasota Paradise
3 : 2 Richmond Kickers
03 Oct
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 3 Charlotte Independence
19 Sept
Sarasota Paradise
6 : 0 Greenville Triumph
05 Sept
Sarasota Paradise
1 : 1 Spokane Velocity
19 Aug
Sarasota Paradise
3 : 2 Chattanooga Red Wolves
Page 1 of 3
Chattanooga Red Wolves
(Away) 07 Oct
One Knoxville
3 : 0 Chattanooga Red Wolves
03 Oct
Chattanooga Red Wolves
3 : 0 Corpus Christi FC
30 Sept
Chattanooga Red Wolves
0 : 1 Spokane Velocity
26 Sept
FC Naples
1 : 0 Chattanooga Red Wolves
19 Sept
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1 : 1 Portland Hearts of Pine
Page 1 of 6
07 Oct
One Knoxville
3 : 0 Chattanooga Red Wolves
26 Sept
FC Naples
1 : 0 Chattanooga Red Wolves
12 Sept
Richmond Kickers
1 : 1 Chattanooga Red Wolves
02 Sept
Westchester SC
0 : 1 Chattanooga Red Wolves
19 Aug
Sarasota Paradise
3 : 2 Chattanooga Red Wolves
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 70:42 | 63 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 30 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 53:32 | 61 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 52:30 | 52 |
| 4 | Athletic Club Boise | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 47:40 | 52 |
| 5 | One Knoxville | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 49:34 | 51 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 41:36 | 47 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 50:43 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 46:37 | 45 |
| 9 | FC Naples | 29 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 34:44 | 37 |
| 10 | Westchester SC | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 51:48 | 36 |
| 11 | Corpus Christi FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 33:43 | 36 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 39:43 | 33 |
| 13 | AV Alta FC | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 44:55 | 31 |
| 15 | New York Cosmos | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 36:59 | 25 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 30:52 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 29 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 30:60 | 23 |
Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs)
