Sport Picks
Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison
USA
USL League One Premier Sports Campus, Lakewood Ranch, FL 
Match Events
24'
24'
Gebhard D.
27'
27'
Bolanos J.
Assist: Roed S.
46'
46'
Sub
Ngoubou C. In: Torres R.
Out: Ngoubou C.
AI Match Summary
Forward Madison in this USL League One matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Forward Madison.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
25%
35%
40%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Forward Madison
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Forward Madison have won more games recently than Sarasota Paradise.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Sarasota Paradise Clean Sheet 10%
Forward Madison Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sarasota Paradise | Forward Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 27 |
| Wins | 8 | 14 |
| Draws | 5 | 4 |
| Losses | 14 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.07 | 1.81 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.74 | 1.3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 2, 2026 USL League One
Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sarasota Paradise Compare
Top Goalscorer Bolanos J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Forward Madison Compare
Top Goalscorer Gebhard D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Humphrey T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sarasota Paradise 30 / 100
Forward Madison 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sarasota Paradise Forward Madison
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Forward Madison Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Forward Madison conceded in 81% of 27 recent games.
Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.
Sarasota Paradise scored in 70% of their last 27 games.
Recent resilience: Sarasota Paradise stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Sarasota Paradise VS Forward Madison
1.25 Goals Scored 2.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Sarasota Paradise
(Home) 22 Aug
Union Omaha
1 : 1 Sarasota Paradise
19 Aug
Sarasota Paradise
3 : 2 Chattanooga Red Wolves
15 Aug
Charlotte Independence
3 : 1 Sarasota Paradise
08 Aug
One Knoxville
2 : 1 Sarasota Paradise
29 Jul
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 2 Portland Hearts of Pine
Page 1 of 6
19 Aug
Sarasota Paradise
3 : 2 Chattanooga Red Wolves
29 Jul
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 2 Portland Hearts of Pine
11 Jul
Sarasota Paradise
0 : 5 Miami FC
13 Jun
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 0 Union Omaha
30 May
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 1 New York Cosmos
Page 1 of 3
Forward Madison
(Away) 29 Aug
Richmond Kickers
1 : 2 Forward Madison
23 Aug
Forward Madison
1 : 1 Charlotte Independence
16 Aug
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 2 Forward Madison
13 Aug
Forward Madison
1 : 1 Greenville Triumph
09 Aug
Athletic Club Boise
2 : 1 Forward Madison
Page 1 of 6
29 Aug
Richmond Kickers
1 : 2 Forward Madison
16 Aug
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 2 Forward Madison
09 Aug
Athletic Club Boise
2 : 1 Forward Madison
02 Jul
Spokane Velocity
0 : 1 Forward Madison
06 Jun
Indy Eleven
2 : 0 Forward Madison
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 22 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 52:29 | 46 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 41:27 | 46 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 43:23 | 43 |
| 4 | One Knoxville | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 37:25 | 39 |
| 5 | Spokane Velocity | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 32:27 | 38 |
| 6 | Athletic Club Boise | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 36:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 40:35 | 32 |
| 8 | AV Alta FC | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 33:34 | 32 |
| 9 | Fort Wayne | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 30:25 | 30 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi FC | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 28:32 | 30 |
| 11 | FC Naples | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 27:39 | 26 |
| 12 | Westchester SC | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 34:34 | 23 |
| 13 | Greenville Triumph | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 27:35 | 23 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 33:41 | 23 |
| 15 | Sarasota Paradise | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 23:36 | 22 |
| 16 | New York Cosmos | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 25:44 | 19 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 21:43 | 19 |
Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs)
