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SB Castelo Branco vs GD Peniche Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Mota C.
13' Event
Sacra
24' Event
Cruz J.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 game between SB Castelo Branco and GD Peniche finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SB Castelo Branco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
SB Castelo Branco
15%
Draws
28%
GD Peniche
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SB Castelo Branco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and SB Castelo Branco come out ahead of GD Peniche on wins alone.
  • SB Castelo Branco are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
SB Castelo Branco Clean Sheet 68%
GD Peniche Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SB Castelo Branco GD Peniche
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 3 7
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.93 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.72 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs SB Castelo Branco
0:2
Dec 7, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs GD Peniche
5:0
Mar 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs SB Castelo Branco
1:1
Nov 30, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs GD Peniche
0:1
Apr 7, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs SB Castelo Branco
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SB Castelo Branco Compare

Top Goalscorer Mota C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sacra
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.32
Avg xA / game 0.86

GD Peniche Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SB Castelo Branco 50 / 100
GD Peniche 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SB Castelo Branco GD Peniche

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SB Castelo Branco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SB Castelo Branco's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

GD Peniche's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

GD Peniche lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SB Castelo Branco VS GD Peniche
1 Goals Scored 1.86
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.43
75% Over 1.5 86%
25% Over 2.5 71%
13% Over 3.5 71%

Recent Form & Match History

SB Castelo Branco

(Home)
13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3
Nogueirense
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4
Naval 1893
16 Aug
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 3
SB Castelo Branco
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GD Peniche

(Away)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
Uniao Da Serra
3 : 1
GD Peniche
04 Apr
GD Peniche
0 : 2
SB Castelo Branco
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
22 Mar
Electrico FC
4 : 2
GD Peniche
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)