Sport Picks
SB Castelo Branco vs SC Lusitania Prediction & H2H Stats
Portugal
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 
Match Events
43'
43'
David Peres
53'
53'
Almeida Pinto C. P.
AI Match Summary
SB Castelo Branco in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored SB Castelo Branco.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
73%
15%
12%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SB Castelo Branco
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
73%
/ High Confidence
- SC Lusitania haven't matched SB Castelo Branco's recent run of results.
- Model gives SB Castelo Branco a 73% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- SB Castelo Branco have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
SB Castelo Branco Clean Sheet 68%
SC Lusitania Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | SB Castelo Branco | SC Lusitania |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 6 |
| Losses | 10 | 19 |
| Goals Scored | 1.93 | 0.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 1.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.65 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 8, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs SC Lusitania
2:0
Nov 1, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SC Lusitania vs SB Castelo Branco
1:2
Feb 25, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SC Lusitania vs SB Castelo Branco
3:1
Nov 1, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs SC Lusitania
4:1
Apr 23, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
SC Lusitania vs SB Castelo Branco
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
SB Castelo Branco Compare
Top Goalscorer David Peres
1 Goals Assists Leader Almeida Pinto C. P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.27
Avg xA / game 0.82
SC Lusitania Compare
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
SB Castelo Branco 86 / 100
SC Lusitania 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
SB Castelo Branco SC Lusitania
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick SB Castelo Branco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: SB Castelo Branco scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.
SC Lusitania let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Away concern: SC Lusitania has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
SB Castelo Branco VS SC Lusitania
1 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.29
75% Over 1.5 86%
25% Over 2.5 57%
13% Over 3.5 43%
Recent Form & Match History
SB Castelo Branco
(Home) 13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3 Nogueirense
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1 SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4 Naval 1893
16 Aug
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 3 SB Castelo Branco
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3 Nogueirense
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4 Naval 1893
12 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 2 Samora Correia
21 Mar
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 1 Oliveira Hospital
08 Mar
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 0 SC Lusitania
Page 1 of 3
SC Lusitania
(Away) 18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1 SC Lusitania
12 Apr
SC Lusitania
1 : 2 Oliveira Hospital
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1 SC Lusitania
22 Mar
Lajense
3 : 1 SC Lusitania
15 Mar
SC Lusitania
0 : 1 Uniao Da Serra
Page 1 of 6
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1 SC Lusitania
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1 SC Lusitania
22 Mar
Lajense
3 : 1 SC Lusitania
08 Mar
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 0 SC Lusitania
22 Feb
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1 SC Lusitania
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Sernache | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 33:12 | 55 |
| 2 | Oliveira Hospital | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 39:13 | 50 |
| 3 | Naval 1893 | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 36:23 | 48 |
| 4 | SB Castelo Branco | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 43:26 | 46 |
| 5 | Uniao Da Serra | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 38:27 | 44 |
| 6 | Mortagua FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 23:26 | 39 |
| 7 | Os Marialvas | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 33:28 | 36 |
| 8 | Fatima | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27:29 | 32 |
| 9 | Lajense | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 37:37 | 32 |
| 10 | GD Peniche | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 34:43 | 30 |
| 11 | Samora Correia | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:35 | 29 |
| 12 | Marinhense | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 20:38 | 24 |
| 13 | Electrico FC | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 33:62 | 19 |
| 14 | SC Lusitania | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 24:48 | 17 |
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
