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SC Lusitania vs Os Marialvas Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Sonhi Y.
9' Event
Henriques R.
18' Event
Seco H.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 game between SC Lusitania and Os Marialvas finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Os Marialvas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
SC Lusitania
15%
Draws
78%
Os Marialvas
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Os Marialvas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Os Marialvas come out ahead of SC Lusitania on wins alone.
  • 78% — that's where the model lands on Os Marialvas taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
SC Lusitania Clean Sheet 13%
Os Marialvas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SC Lusitania Os Marialvas
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 19 10
Goals Scored 0.93 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.87 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.59 1.64
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SC Lusitania vs Os Marialvas
0:5
Sep 28, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs SC Lusitania
1:1
Sep 24, 2023 Taça de Portugal
SC Lusitania vs Os Marialvas
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SC Lusitania Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.29

Os Marialvas Compare

Top Goalscorer Henriques R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sonhi Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SC Lusitania 10 / 100
Os Marialvas 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SC Lusitania Os Marialvas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Os Marialvas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SC Lusitania found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 2.67 goals as a typical output.

Os Marialvas let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

SC Lusitania has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

SC Lusitania VS Os Marialvas
0.8 Goals Scored 0.88
2.4 Goals Conceded 0.38
80% Over 1.5 50%
60% Over 2.5 0%
40% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

SC Lusitania

(Home)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
SC Lusitania
1 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1
SC Lusitania
22 Mar
Lajense
3 : 1
SC Lusitania
15 Mar
SC Lusitania
0 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
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Os Marialvas

(Away)
20 Sept
UD Ovarense
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
13 Sept
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Os Marialvas
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
30 Aug
Fornos de Algodres
0 : 4
Os Marialvas
23 Aug
Os Marialvas
1 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)