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SC Penedense vs Guarany Alagoano Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Copa Alagoas 2025 Estádio Alfredo Leahy, Penedo
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Wanderson
22' Event
Romario Valenca
46' Event
Romario Valenca

AI Match Summary

SC Penedense in this Copa Alagoas 2025 tie, finishing 5-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
SC Penedense
30%
Draws
47%
Guarany Alagoano
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guarany Alagoano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Guarany Alagoano have won more games recently than SC Penedense.
  • Guarany Alagoano are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Guarany Alagoano arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor SC Penedense, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 66.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%
SC Penedense Clean Sheet 18%
Guarany Alagoano Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SC Penedense Guarany Alagoano
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 5 15
Draws 9 7
Losses 17 6
Goals Scored 0.55 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.03 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.35
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2025 Copa Alagoas
SC Penedense vs Guarany Alagoano
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SC Penedense Compare

Top Goalscorer Romario Valenca
3 Goals
Assists Leader Wanderson
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Guarany Alagoano Compare

Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.75

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SC Penedense 12 / 100
Guarany Alagoano 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SC Penedense Guarany Alagoano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarany Alagoano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

SC Penedense's goal record stands at 32% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Guarany Alagoano let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.

SC Penedense went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SC Penedense VS Guarany Alagoano
0.5 Goals Scored 1.83
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 83%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

SC Penedense

(Home)
18 Mar
SC Penedense
2 : 2
Zumbi
02 Mar
SC Penedense
0 : 1
ASA
25 Feb
Londrina
1 : 0
SC Penedense
21 Feb
Miguelense
0 : 1
SC Penedense
07 Feb
ASA
2 : 0
SC Penedense
Page 1 of 7

Guarany Alagoano

(Away)
18 Oct
Guarany Alagoano
2 : 2
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
12 Oct
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
2 : 1
Guarany Alagoano
04 Oct
Guarany Alagoano
1 : 1
Agrimaq
27 Sept
Agrimaq
0 : 2
Guarany Alagoano
21 Sept
Miguelense
1 : 4
Guarany Alagoano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Penedense 6 4 1 1 19:3 13
2 Coruripe 6 4 0 2 7:3 12
3 CRB 6 3 2 1 13:2 11
4 Zumbi 6 3 2 1 12:3 11
5 Murici 6 3 1 2 12:7 10
6 Dimensao Capela 6 2 0 4 6:13 6
Promotion - Copa Alagoas 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Clube Sociedade Esportiva 6 6 0 0 11:1 18
2 CSA 6 2 3 1 5:5 9
3 ASA 6 2 1 3 8:5 7
4 Guarany Alagoano 6 1 2 3 6:11 5
5 Igaci 6 0 0 6 0:18 0
6 Centro Esportivo Olhodaguense 6 0 0 6 1:29 0
Promotion - Copa Alagoas 2025 (Play Offs)