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SCD Durango vs Derio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SCD Durango Logo

SCD Durango

1 - 1
FT
Derio Logo

Derio

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 game between SCD Durango and Derio finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
SCD Durango
35%
Draws
41%
Derio
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Derio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Derio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 41% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
SCD Durango Clean Sheet 26%
Derio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SCD Durango Derio
Matches Played 31 34
Wins 13 15
Draws 7 9
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.39 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SCD Durango vs Derio
1:1
Mar 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs SCD Durango
4:0
Nov 8, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SCD Durango vs Derio
1:0
Feb 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs SCD Durango
2:2
Sep 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SCD Durango vs Derio
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SCD Durango 38 / 100
Derio 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SCD Durango Derio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Derio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SCD Durango scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Derio conceded in 76% of 34 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: SCD Durango stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SCD Durango VS Derio
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

SCD Durango

(Home)
03 Oct
Touring KE
2 : 2
SCD Durango
26 Sept
Beasain
1 : 2
SCD Durango
19 Sept
SCD Durango
0 : 0
UD Aretxabaleta
13 Sept
Santurtzi
2 : 1
SCD Durango
05 Sept
SCD Durango
3 : 3
San Ignacio
Page 1 of 7

Derio

(Away)
04 Oct
Derio
2 : 0
Beasain
26 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
1 : 2
Derio
20 Sept
Derio
2 : 0
Santurtzi
16 Sept
Derio
3 : 5
Salamanca CF UDS
12 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 1
Derio
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aurrera de Vitoria 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Derio 6 3 3 0 8:3 12
3 Pasaia 5 3 1 1 7:6 10
4 Leioa 5 2 3 0 12:6 9
5 Real Sociedad C 5 2 2 1 10:8 8
6 San Ignacio 6 2 2 2 10:8 8
7 Touring KE 6 2 2 2 7:6 8
8 UD Aretxabaleta 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
9 Sodupe 6 2 2 2 5:9 8
10 Alaves C 5 2 1 2 11:6 7
11 SCD Durango 6 1 4 1 9:9 7
12 Lagun Onak 5 2 1 2 4:5 7
13 SD Erandio 5 2 0 3 6:6 6
14 Eibar C 6 1 2 3 9:10 5
15 Real Union B 5 1 2 2 7:11 5
16 Beasain 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
17 Santurtzi 5 1 0 4 2:7 3
18 Amurrio Club 5 0 1 4 1:12 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)