Sport Picks
SCD Progresso vs Mezzolara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 
Match Events
48'
48'
Muro A.
82'
82'
De Meio V.
Own Goal
86'
86'
Vecchio N.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 game between SCD Progresso and Mezzolara finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mezzolara
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and SCD Progresso come out ahead of Mezzolara on wins alone.
- Model gives Mezzolara a 47% chance of winning this.
- Regular Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 78.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
SCD Progresso Clean Sheet 25%
Mezzolara Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | SCD Progresso | Mezzolara |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 3 |
| Draws | 6 | 11 |
| Losses | 14 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 0.72 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.42 | 1.45 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.30 | 0.85 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 5, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Mezzolara vs SCD Progresso
1:2
Dec 20, 2023 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Mezzolara
2:2
Feb 2, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Mezzolara vs SCD Progresso
1:0
Sep 26, 2021 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Mezzolara
0:1
Apr 21, 2021 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Mezzolara
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
SCD Progresso Compare
Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.65
Mezzolara Compare
Top Goalscorer Muro A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Vecchio N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.47
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
SCD Progresso 17 / 100
Mezzolara 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
SCD Progresso Mezzolara
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mezzolara Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
SCD Progresso found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (31 games).
Mezzolara has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 2.20 goals.
SCD Progresso went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
SCD Progresso VS Mezzolara
1.75 Goals Scored 0.57
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.86
100% Over 1.5 57%
63% Over 2.5 29%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
SCD Progresso
(Home) 04 Oct
Rondinella
2 : 1 SCD Progresso
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0 SCD Progresso
20 Sept
SCD Progresso
0 : 3 Seravezza Pozzi
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0 SCD Progresso
12 Sept
SCD Progresso
2 : 1 Scandicci
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
SCD Progresso
0 : 3 Seravezza Pozzi
12 Sept
SCD Progresso
2 : 1 Scandicci
03 May
SCD Progresso
4 : 1 Sasso Marconi
12 Apr
SCD Progresso
1 : 1 Correggese
28 Mar
SCD Progresso
1 : 2 Pro Palazzolo
Page 1 of 3
Mezzolara
(Away) 04 Oct
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 1 Mezzolara
27 Sept
Mezzolara
0 : 0 Grassina
20 Sept
Ghiviborgo
1 : 1 Mezzolara
16 Sept
Mezzolara
2 : 1 Ternana
12 Sept
Siena
3 : 0 Mezzolara
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 1 Mezzolara
20 Sept
Ghiviborgo
1 : 1 Mezzolara
12 Sept
Siena
3 : 0 Mezzolara
28 Apr
Forli FC
2 : 0 Mezzolara
07 Apr
Sangiuliano City
2 : 1 Mezzolara
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carpi | 32 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 66:31 | 68 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 32 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 56:13 | 66 |
| 3 | Corticella | 32 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 59:40 | 57 |
| 4 | Victor San Marino | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 44:37 | 57 |
| 5 | Lentigione | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 49:31 | 56 |
| 6 | Forli FC | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 48:35 | 55 |
| 7 | Prato | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 37:41 | 44 |
| 8 | Sangiuliano City | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 32:37 | 44 |
| 9 | Fanfulla | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 28:35 | 43 |
| 10 | Sant'Angelo | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 47:44 | 41 |
| 11 | Aglianese Calcio | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 32:39 | 41 |
| 12 | Imolese | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 31:33 | 40 |
| 13 | Sammaurese | 32 | 11 | 4 | 17 | 37:48 | 37 |
| 14 | SCD Progresso | 32 | 11 | 4 | 17 | 27:43 | 37 |
| 15 | San Donnino | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 32:58 | 25 |
| 16 | Certaldo | 32 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 22:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Mezzolara | 32 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 23:50 | 21 |
| 18 | Pistoiese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
