Sport Picks

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SCD Progresso vs San Donnino

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Matta G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 game between SCD Progresso and San Donnino finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SCD Progresso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
SCD Progresso
20%
Draws
50%
San Donnino
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: San Donnino

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • SCD Progresso carry the better recent record into this one.
  • San Donnino are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • SCD Progresso have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
SCD Progresso Clean Sheet 17%
San Donnino Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SCD Progresso San Donnino
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 15 5
Draws 5 10
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 1.11 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2024 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs San Donnino
1:0
Oct 15, 2023 Serie D - Group D
San Donnino vs SCD Progresso
0:1
May 22, 2022 Serie D - Group D
San Donnino vs SCD Progresso
1:1
Mar 2, 2022 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs San Donnino
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SCD Progresso Compare

Top Goalscorer Matta G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

San Donnino Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SCD Progresso 15 / 100
San Donnino 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SCD Progresso San Donnino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Donnino Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Donnino's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.

SCD Progresso's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 37 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

SCD Progresso has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

SCD Progresso VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

SCD Progresso

(Home)
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0
SCD Progresso
20 Sept
SCD Progresso
0 : 3
Seravezza Pozzi
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0
SCD Progresso
12 Sept
SCD Progresso
2 : 1
Scandicci
06 Sept
Tau
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
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San Donnino

(Away)
05 May
Victor San Marino
3 : 2
San Donnino
28 Apr
San Donnino
0 : 2
Ravenna
21 Apr
Corticella
2 : 2
San Donnino
14 Apr
San Donnino
1 : 1
Sant'Angelo
07 Apr
Lentigione
2 : 3
San Donnino
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carpi 32 21 5 6 66:31 68
2 Ravenna 32 19 9 4 56:13 66
3 Corticella 32 18 3 11 59:40 57
4 Victor San Marino 32 17 6 9 44:37 57
5 Lentigione 32 16 8 8 49:31 56
6 Forli FC 32 16 7 9 48:35 55
7 Prato 32 12 8 12 37:41 44
8 Sangiuliano City 32 12 8 12 32:37 44
9 Fanfulla 32 11 10 11 28:35 43
10 Sant'Angelo 32 11 8 13 47:44 41
11 Aglianese Calcio 32 11 8 13 32:39 41
12 Imolese 32 12 6 14 31:33 40
13 Sammaurese 32 11 4 17 37:48 37
14 SCD Progresso 32 11 4 17 27:43 37
15 San Donnino 32 5 10 17 32:58 25
16 Certaldo 32 6 6 20 22:55 24
17 Mezzolara 32 5 6 21 23:50 21
18 Pistoiese 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)