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SCD Progresso vs Sant'Angelo Prediction & H2H Stats

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Serie D - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

51' Event
Mascanzoni M.

AI Match Summary

SCD Progresso in this Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored SCD Progresso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
SCD Progresso
20%
Draws
58%
Sant'Angelo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sant'Angelo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to SCD Progresso lately — more wins on the board than Sant'Angelo.
  • Win probability leans Sant'Angelo's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
SCD Progresso Clean Sheet 13%
Sant'Angelo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SCD Progresso Sant'Angelo
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 10 8
Draws 5 9
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.07 1.22
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Sant'Angelo vs SCD Progresso
1:1
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Sant'Angelo
1:0
Mar 17, 2024 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Sant'Angelo
2:2
Nov 5, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Sant'Angelo vs SCD Progresso
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SCD Progresso Compare

Top Goalscorer Mascanzoni M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Sant'Angelo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SCD Progresso 19 / 100
Sant'Angelo 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SCD Progresso Sant'Angelo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sant'Angelo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sant'Angelo let in goals in 81% of their last 27 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

SCD Progresso found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (28 games).

SCD Progresso has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

SCD Progresso VS Sant'Angelo
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

SCD Progresso

(Home)
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0
SCD Progresso
20 Sept
SCD Progresso
0 : 3
Seravezza Pozzi
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0
SCD Progresso
12 Sept
SCD Progresso
2 : 1
Scandicci
06 Sept
Tau
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
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Sant'Angelo

(Away)
27 Sept
Pistoiese
3 : 0
Sant'Angelo
20 Sept
Sant'Angelo
0 : 0
Pavia
16 Sept
USD Casatese
1 : 2
Sant'Angelo
13 Sept
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1
Varesina
06 Sept
Correggese
0 : 3
Sant'Angelo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Desenzano Calvina 34 23 8 3 60:21 77
2 Lentigione 34 22 7 5 51:23 73
3 Pistoiese 34 20 11 3 61:22 71
4 Piacenza 34 19 7 8 60:35 64
5 Pro Palazzolo 34 16 9 9 44:31 57
6 Pro Sesto 34 15 10 9 45:30 55
7 Cittadella Vis Modena 34 15 10 9 35:29 55
8 Rovato Vertovese 34 14 10 10 35:29 52
9 Sangiuliano City 34 14 8 12 41:45 47
10 SCD Progresso 34 10 9 15 38:42 39
11 Sant'Angelo 34 10 9 15 38:51 39
12 Correggese 34 9 12 13 35:36 39
13 Crema 34 9 11 14 35:47 38
14 Imolese 34 8 10 16 28:47 34
15 Sasso Marconi 34 8 7 19 33:49 31
16 Tropical Coriano 34 7 10 17 29:45 31
17 Trevigliese 34 5 8 21 31:62 23
18 Tuttocuoio 34 0 8 26 18:73 8
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 (Play Out)