Sport Picks
Scunthorpe vs Derby U21 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
National League Cup Attis Arena, Scunthorpe 
Match Events
6'
6'
Gale J.
Assist: Parker H.
17'
17'
Barrows R.
17'
17'
Harvey R.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-2. The second leg ended 3-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
15%
28%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Scunthorpe
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Derby U21 haven't matched Scunthorpe's recent run of results.
- 57% — that's where the model lands on Scunthorpe taking it.
- Scunthorpe have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Scunthorpe, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Scunthorpe Clean Sheet 12%
Derby U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Scunthorpe | Derby U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 7 |
| Draws | 5 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.68 | 1.59 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.35 | 2.41 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 13, 2026 National League Cup
Scunthorpe vs Derby U21
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Scunthorpe Compare
Top Goalscorer Gale J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Richards J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06
Derby U21 Compare
Top Goalscorer Wilson C.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Scunthorpe 65 / 100
Derby U21 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Scunthorpe Derby U21
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Scunthorpe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Derby U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Scunthorpe scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.
Derby U21's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Scunthorpe VS Derby U21
1.75 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 88%
Recent Form & Match History
Scunthorpe
(Home) 13 Oct
Scunthorpe
3 : 2 Derby U21
10 Oct
AFC Fylde
2 : 0 Scunthorpe
29 Sept
Barrow
3 : 0 Scunthorpe
26 Sept
Scunthorpe
4 : 1 Hartlepool
19 Sept
Hornchurch
1 : 0 Scunthorpe
Page 1 of 7
13 Oct
Scunthorpe
3 : 2 Derby U21
26 Sept
Scunthorpe
4 : 1 Hartlepool
16 Sept
Scunthorpe
1 : 2 Boreham Wood
08 Sept
Scunthorpe
2 : 1 Nottingham U21
05 Sept
Scunthorpe
0 : 2 Harrogate
Page 1 of 3
Derby U21
(Away) 13 Oct
Scunthorpe
3 : 2 Derby U21
10 Oct
Brentford U21
4 : 2 Derby U21
18 Sept
Burnley U21
4 : 1 Derby U21
11 Sept
Derby U21
1 : 3 Tottenham U21
08 Sept
Gateshead
1 : 3 Derby U21
Page 1 of 6
13 Oct
Scunthorpe
3 : 2 Derby U21
10 Oct
Brentford U21
4 : 2 Derby U21
18 Sept
Burnley U21
4 : 1 Derby U21
08 Sept
Gateshead
1 : 3 Derby U21
24 Aug
Reading U21
1 : 3 Derby U21
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Halifax | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:4 | 9 |
| 2 | Scunthorpe | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:3 | 8 |
| 3 | Wolves U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:4 | 5 |
| 4 | Derby U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:9 | 4 |
| 5 | Wealdstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 3 |
| 6 | Nottingham U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | 2 |
| 7 | Gateshead | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:4 | 2 |
| 8 | Stoke City U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:14 | 0 |
Promotion - National League Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 2 | Norwich U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:6 | 5 |
| 3 | Ipswich U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:5 | 5 |
| 4 | Hornchurch | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 5 | Aldershot | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:8 | 4 |
| 6 | Braintree | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 4 |
| 7 | Fulham U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:5 | 4 |
| 8 | Worthing FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:4 | 1 |
Promotion - National League Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Boreham Wood | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | 7 |
| 3 | Tamworth | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:6 | 6 |
| 4 | Solihull Moors | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 5 | Everton U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 5 |
| 6 | Newcastle Utd U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7:10 | 3 |
| 7 | Leeds U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:8 | 3 |
| 8 | Hartlepool | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:13 | 0 |
Promotion - National League Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Truro | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Woking | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 3 | Sutton | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 4 | West Brom U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 5 |
| 5 | Birmingham U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:6 | 5 |
| 6 | Southampton U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:11 | 3 |
| 7 | Leicester U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:6 | 2 |
| 8 | Boston United | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7:10 | 0 |
Promotion - National League Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
