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Scunthorpe vs Middlesbrough U21

England England

National League Cup 2025/2026 Attis Arena, Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe Logo

Scunthorpe

3 - 2
FT
Middlesbrough U21 Logo

Middlesbrough U21

Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Sub
Boyce A. In: Beck M.
Out: Boyce A.
27'
Sub
Horton B. In: Gjoshe J.
Out: Horton B.
27'
Sub
Starbuck J. In: Shipstone H.
Out: Starbuck J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Scunthorpe in this National League Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Scunthorpe
20%
Draws
36%
Middlesbrough U21
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Scunthorpe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Scunthorpe have won more games recently than Middlesbrough U21.
  • Model gives Scunthorpe a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Scunthorpe have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Scunthorpe, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Scunthorpe Clean Sheet 10%
Middlesbrough U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Scunthorpe Middlesbrough U21
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 10
Draws 6 8
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.73 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 28, 2025 National League Cup
Scunthorpe vs Middlesbrough U21
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Scunthorpe Compare

Top Goalscorer Howe D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sellars-Fleming T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Middlesbrough U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Finch S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Smith T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Scunthorpe 40 / 100
Middlesbrough U21 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Scunthorpe Middlesbrough U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Middlesbrough U21 has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Scunthorpe scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Recent resilience: Scunthorpe stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Scunthorpe VS Middlesbrough U21
1.75 Goals Scored 2.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Scunthorpe

(Home)
19 Sept
Hornchurch
1 : 0
Scunthorpe
16 Sept
Scunthorpe
1 : 2
Boreham Wood
12 Sept
Sutton
0 : 2
Scunthorpe
08 Sept
Scunthorpe
2 : 1
Nottingham U21
05 Sept
Scunthorpe
0 : 2
Harrogate
Page 1 of 6

Middlesbrough U21

(Away)
18 Sept
Aston Villa U21
2 : 2
Middlesbrough U21
13 Sept
Middlesbrough U21
4 : 4
Leeds U21
09 Sept
Tamworth
1 : 3
Middlesbrough U21
31 Aug
Bournemouth U21
3 : 1
Middlesbrough U21
23 Aug
Middlesbrough U21
0 : 1
Norwich U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tamworth 4 4 0 0 12:1 12
2 Brackley 4 3 0 1 7:3 10
3 Rochdale 4 3 0 1 6:5 9
4 Solihull Moors 4 3 0 1 6:3 8
5 Everton U21 4 2 0 2 4:5 5
6 Manchester United U21 4 1 0 3 4:9 3
7 Burnley U21 4 0 0 4 2:8 1
8 Blackburn U21 4 0 0 4 2:9 0
Promotion - National League Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Boreham Wood 4 4 0 0 13:4 12
2 Braintree 4 3 0 1 8:5 9
3 Wealdstone 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
4 Forest Green 4 2 0 2 8:6 7
5 Nottingham U21 4 2 0 2 3:3 6
6 West Brom U21 4 1 0 3 5:10 3
7 Leicester U21 4 1 0 3 6:10 2
8 Wolves U21 4 0 0 4 5:12 0
Promotion - National League Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 West Ham U21 4 4 0 0 13:4 11
2 Truro 4 3 0 1 7:5 9
3 Woking 4 3 0 1 5:4 8
4 Brighton U21 4 2 0 2 5:6 7
5 Aldershot 4 1 0 3 7:11 4
6 Sutton 4 1 0 3 8:13 4
7 Fulham U21 4 1 0 3 8:5 3
8 Southampton U21 4 1 0 3 7:12 2
Promotion - National League Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Boston United 4 3 0 1 11:4 9
2 Halifax 4 3 0 1 6:2 9
3 Newcastle Utd U21 4 2 0 2 7:6 7
4 Scunthorpe 4 2 0 2 8:8 6
5 Leeds U21 4 2 0 2 6:8 6
6 Sunderland U21 4 2 0 2 5:8 6
7 Middlesbrough U21 4 1 0 3 6:7 3
8 Gateshead 4 1 0 3 4:10 2
Promotion - National League Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)