Sport Picks

Stadium Background

SD Deusto vs Aurrera de Vitoria

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Anduaga A.
48' Event
Diaz Hortelano N.

AI Match Summary

Aurrera de Vitoria in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aurrera de Vitoria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
SD Deusto
30%
Draws
34%
Aurrera de Vitoria
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: SD Deusto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aurrera de Vitoria lately — more wins on the board than SD Deusto.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on SD Deusto taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
SD Deusto Clean Sheet 68%
Aurrera de Vitoria Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SD Deusto Aurrera de Vitoria
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 13
Draws 6 6
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 0.88 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs SD Deusto
2:1
Jan 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SD Deusto vs Aurrera de Vitoria
0:2
Apr 1, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs SD Deusto
0:2
Dec 3, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SD Deusto vs Aurrera de Vitoria
2:0
Feb 17, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs SD Deusto
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SD Deusto Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Aurrera de Vitoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Anduaga A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diaz Hortelano N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SD Deusto 46 / 100
Aurrera de Vitoria 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SD Deusto Aurrera de Vitoria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aurrera de Vitoria has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

SD Deusto scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Solid form: SD Deusto remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

SD Deusto VS Aurrera de Vitoria
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

SD Deusto

(Home)
09 May
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
SD Deusto
03 May
SD Deusto
1 : 3
Leioa
26 Apr
Eibar C
5 : 0
SD Deusto
18 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0
Anorga
11 Apr
SCD Durango
1 : 1
SD Deusto
Page 1 of 6

Aurrera de Vitoria

(Away)
09 May
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
SD Deusto
03 May
Portugalete
1 : 2
Aurrera de Vitoria
25 Apr
Aurrera de Vitoria
0 : 1
San Ignacio
18 Apr
Derio
1 : 1
Aurrera de Vitoria
11 Apr
Aurrera de Vitoria
0 : 2
Touring KE
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Portugalete34246470:2978
2Leioa34187950:3461
3Derio341771054:4058
4Lagun Onak341761154:3457
5Touring KE34169947:3557
6Real Sociedad C341741348:3955
7San Ignacio341671137:2755
8Aurrera de Vitoria341661242:4154
9Alaves C341581157:4053
10UD Aretxabaleta341361556:6145
11SCD Durango3411111235:3644
12Santurtzi349121332:4539
13Eibar C34991644:5336
14Pasaia34991626:4636
15Anorga341141937:5934
16Zamudio34961942:5933
17Zarautz KE34862030:6030
18SD Deusto34672126:4925
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)