Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 4 2014/2015

Santutxu FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

SD Erandio play Santutxu FC in the Tercera Division - Group 4 2014/2015. It looks like a close match. Recently, SD Erandio averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. Santutxu FC averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. In past meetings, SD Erandio won 0, Santutxu FC won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 19, 2015 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for SD Erandio and 1.18 for Santutxu FC. This points to a Santutxu FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%

SD Erandio

24%

Draws

53%

Santutxu FC

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Santutxu FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence

SD Erandio picked up more points recently compared to Santutxu FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 1.18 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 70%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%

SD Erandio Clean Sheet 20%

Santutxu FC Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 63%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	SD Erandio	Santutxu FC
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	5	7
Draws	4	11
Losses	21	14
Goals Scored	0.8	1.19
Goals Conceded	1.83	1.69

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

SD Erandio vs Santutxu FC

Possession: 42% - 58% Cards: 1 - 1

1:4

Nov 30, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Santutxu FC vs SD Erandio

Possession: 55% - 55% Cards: 3 - 4

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SD Erandio 25 / 100

Santutxu FC 50 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

SD Erandio Santutxu FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santutxu FC Win (2)

Secondary Pick Santutxu FC & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +53.4%

6.67

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

SD Erandio attacking → ← attacking Santutxu FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SD Erandio scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Santutxu FC let in goals in 84% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

SD Erandio went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Santutxu FC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

19 Points in last 5 32

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugalete	38	20	15	3	68:27	75
2	Gernika Club	38	21	12	5	54:21	75
3	Arenas Getxo	38	20	11	7	62:31	71
4	SCD Durango	38	20	7	11	43:30	67
5	Beasain	38	18	13	7	52:41	67
6	Zalla UC	38	18	12	8	50:36	66
7	Alaves B	38	16	10	12	52:41	58
8	Real Sociedad C	38	15	12	11	38:32	57
9	Balmaseda	38	16	7	15	43:37	55
10	Santurtzi	38	14	9	15	48:49	51
11	Zamudio	38	13	11	14	53:49	50
12	Aurrera de Vitoria	38	14	7	17	44:48	49
13	Santutxu FC	38	12	10	16	31:43	46
14	Bermeo	38	10	15	13	35:49	45
15	Lagun Onak	38	11	10	17	38:43	43
16	Basconia	38	10	12	16	44:57	42
17	Pasaia	38	10	8	20	35:49	38
18	SD Erandio	38	9	5	24	33:62	32
19	Oiartzun	38	5	11	22	24:55	26
20	Amurrio Club	38	5	9	24	25:72	24