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SD Noja vs UC Cartes

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Boo R.
70' Event
Gonzalez K. G.
Own Goal
79' Event
Hoya R.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 game between SD Noja and UC Cartes finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
SD Noja
35%
Draws
32%
UC Cartes
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • UC Cartes carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 32% — that's where the model lands on UC Cartes taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
SD Noja Clean Sheet 10%
UC Cartes Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SD Noja UC Cartes
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 5
Draws 5 9
Losses 21 16
Goals Scored 0.7 0.87
Goals Conceded 2.03 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
SD Noja vs UC Cartes
2:2
Jan 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UC Cartes vs SD Noja
1:1
Apr 23, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UC Cartes vs SD Noja
3:2
Dec 19, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
SD Noja vs UC Cartes
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SD Noja Compare

Top Goalscorer Hoya R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

UC Cartes Compare

Top Goalscorer Boo R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Acosta A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SD Noja 14 / 100
UC Cartes 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SD Noja UC Cartes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UC Cartes Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.75 goals per match.

Defensive concern: UC Cartes conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

UC Cartes's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: SD Noja scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

SD Noja VS UC Cartes
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
3 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

SD Noja

(Home)
09 May
SD Noja
2 : 2
UC Cartes
01 May
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
6 : 0
SD Noja
26 Apr
SD Noja
0 : 1
CD Revilla
18 Apr
Guarnizo
4 : 1
SD Noja
12 Apr
SD Noja
2 : 2
CD Colindres
Page 1 of 6

UC Cartes

(Away)
09 May
SD Noja
2 : 2
UC Cartes
03 May
UC Cartes
0 : 0
Castro
26 Apr
Cayon CD
3 : 2
UC Cartes
18 Apr
UC Cartes
0 : 1
CD Montanas del Pas
11 Apr
UM Escobedo
3 : 1
UC Cartes
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)