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Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Seattle Sounders Logo

Seattle Sounders

2 - 2
FT
Chicago Fire Logo

Chicago Fire

Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Joveljic D.
Assist: Gomez S.
38' Event
Haile-Selassie M.
Assist: Lewandowski R.
48' Event
Joveljic D.
Assist: Rusnak A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Seattle Sounders
15%
Draws
35%
Chicago Fire
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Seattle Sounders

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Chicago Fire lately — more wins on the board than Seattle Sounders.
  • Model gives Seattle Sounders a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Seattle Sounders Clean Sheet 18%
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Seattle Sounders Chicago Fire
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 15
Draws 7 5
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.43 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 MLS
Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire
2:2
Jun 30, 2024 MLS
Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire
2:1
Jul 17, 2022 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Seattle Sounders
1:0
Jul 14, 2020 MLS is Back
Chicago Fire vs Seattle Sounders
2:1
Mar 1, 2020 MLS
Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Seattle Sounders Compare

Top Goalscorer Joveljic D.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Chicago Fire Compare

Top Goalscorer Haile-Selassie M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lewandowski R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Seattle Sounders 85 / 100
Chicago Fire 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Seattle Sounders Chicago Fire

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Seattle Sounders Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chicago Fire let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Solid form: Seattle Sounders remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Seattle Sounders's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Scoring Trends

Seattle Sounders VS Chicago Fire
2 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Seattle Sounders

(Home)
10 Oct
New England Revolution
0 : 3
Seattle Sounders
02 Oct
Seattle Sounders
2 : 1
Sporting Kansas City
27 Sept
Seattle Sounders
3 : 1
Minnesota United
24 Sept
Seattle Sounders
2 : 0
Real Salt Lake
20 Sept
Colorado Rapids
3 : 3
Seattle Sounders
Page 1 of 6

Chicago Fire

(Away)
10 Oct
Chicago Fire
2 : 1
New York City
07 Oct
Chicago Fire
3 : 1
Vancouver Whitecaps
26 Sept
Charlotte FC
0 : 1
Chicago Fire
20 Sept
Nashville SC
3 : 0
Chicago Fire
13 Sept
Chicago Fire
1 : 2
New England Revolution
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 28 15 6 7 61:30 51
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 28 13 8 7 52:45 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
5 Houston Dynamo 28 13 6 9 36:34 45
6 Los Angeles FC 29 11 9 9 44:31 42
7 Seattle Sounders 28 11 8 9 38:35 41
8 Colorado Rapids 28 11 4 13 39:39 37
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 28 9 6 13 51:54 33
11 Real Salt Lake 28 9 5 14 41:46 32
12 San Diego FC 28 8 8 12 48:51 32
13 Austin FC 28 7 10 11 36:51 31
14 Minnesota United 28 7 9 12 42:51 30
15 Sporting Kansas City 28 6 4 18 35:68 22
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 28 19 6 3 59:22 63
2 Inter Miami 28 13 10 5 68:50 49
3 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
4 New England Revolution 28 14 4 10 45:39 46
5 Charlotte FC 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
6 Philadelphia Union 28 12 6 10 56:45 42
7 Orlando City 28 11 4 13 51:66 37
8 New York Red Bulls 28 10 6 12 38:52 36
9 FC Cincinnati 27 9 9 9 58:65 36
10 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 27 6 12 9 34:46 30
13 Columbus Crew 28 8 5 15 41:46 29
14 Atlanta United 28 7 6 15 33:48 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)