Sport Picks

USA

MLS Lumen Field

Match Events

Fernandez N.

Assist: Adimabua N.

43'

Rusnak A.

(Penalty)

45'

Roberts R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Seattle Sounders host San Jose Earthquakes in the MLS. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. San Jose Earthquakes have shipped 1.38 goals a game lately, while Seattle Sounders have conceded 1.25 and scored 1.75. Head-to-head, Seattle Sounders have won 3 to San Jose Earthquakes's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on May 14, 2026, ending 3:2. xG projections (1.56 - 2.00) back Seattle Sounders to edge this. Over markets look the better angle than the result itself.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Seattle Sounders

39%

Draws

31%

San Jose Earthquakes

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

San Jose Earthquakes demonstrates higher offensive output (2.75 avg goals) than Seattle Sounders (1.75 avg goals).
Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
League standings and seasonal metrics in MLS provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

Seattle Sounders Clean Sheet 10%

San Jose Earthquakes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Seattle Sounders	San Jose Earthquakes
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	17	17
Draws	4	2
Losses	8	10
Goals Scored	1.75	2.75
Goals Conceded	1.25	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2026 MLS

Seattle Sounders vs San Jose Earthquakes

Possession: 40% - 47% Cards: 3 - 3

3:2

Mar 15, 2026 MLS

San Jose Earthquakes vs Seattle Sounders

Possession: 56% - 47% Cards: 0 - 4

0:1

Jul 20, 2025 MLS

Seattle Sounders vs San Jose Earthquakes

Possession: 55% - 52% Cards: 3 - 2

3:2

Mar 30, 2025 MLS

San Jose Earthquakes vs Seattle Sounders

Possession: 47% - 47% Cards: 3 - 0

1:1

Sep 19, 2024 MLS

Seattle Sounders vs San Jose Earthquakes

Possession: 55% - 43% Cards: 1 - 2

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Seattle Sounders Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader De Rosario O.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

San Jose Earthquakes Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez N.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Judd P.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.5

Avg xA / game 1.53

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Seattle Sounders 29 / 100

San Jose Earthquakes 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Seattle Sounders San Jose Earthquakes

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SEA Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Seattle Sounders scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

San Jose Earthquakes let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Seattle Sounders went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

San Jose Earthquakes lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Seattle Sounders VS San Jose Earthquakes

1.75 Goals Scored 2.75

1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38

88% Over 1.5 100%

50% Over 2.5 63%

38% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	14	10	2	2	34:12	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	15	10	2	3	34:15	32
3	Real Salt Lake	14	8	2	4	26:19	26
4	FC Dallas	15	7	4	4	30:22	25
5	Los Angeles FC	15	7	3	5	24:17	24
6	Seattle Sounders	13	7	3	3	17:11	24
7	Houston Dynamo	14	7	1	6	19:23	22
8	Minnesota United	15	6	4	5	18:22	22
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	15	5	5	5	22:22	20
10	San Diego FC	15	4	5	6	30:27	17
11	Colorado Rapids	15	5	1	9	25:24	16
12	St. Louis City	14	4	4	6	16:20	16
13	Portland Timbers	14	4	2	8	22:28	14
14	Austin FC	15	3	5	7	19:31	14
15	Sporting Kansas City	14	3	2	9	14:36	11

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	14	10	3	1	31:11	33
2	Inter Miami	15	9	4	2	39:28	31
3	Chicago Fire	14	8	2	4	27:16	26
4	New England Revolution	14	8	1	5	22:18	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	6	4	5	25:32	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	6	3	6	24:23	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	5	5	5	36:37	20
8	New York City	15	5	4	6	25:21	19
9	DC United	15	4	6	5	21:25	18
10	Columbus Crew	15	4	4	7	21:23	16
11	CF Montreal	14	4	2	8	22:31	14
12	Orlando City	15	4	2	9	23:44	14
13	Toronto FC	14	3	5	6	22:29	14
14	Atlanta United	14	3	2	9	14:23	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	1	4	10	18:30	7