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Stadium Background

Mozambique vs Senegal

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Estádio do Zimpeto, Maputo
Mozambique Logo

Mozambique

1 - 1
FT
Senegal Logo

Senegal

Our Tip

Match Events

29'
Witiness J.
32' Event
Jackson N.
Assist: Sima A.
38'
Guimaraes R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Mozambique
20%
Draws
64%
Senegal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Senegal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Senegal carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Senegal's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Senegal arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Senegal, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Senegal have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Mozambique Clean Sheet 14%
Senegal Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mozambique Senegal
Matches Played 31 44
Wins 10 26
Draws 5 9
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 1.06 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.71 0.73
Expected Goals (xG) 0.71 1.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Mozambique vs Senegal
1:1
Mar 28, 2023 Africa Cup of Nations
Mozambique vs Senegal
0:1
Mar 24, 2023 Africa Cup of Nations
Senegal vs Mozambique
5:1
Jul 17, 2022 COSAFA Cup
Mozambique vs Senegal
1:2
Jul 9, 2021 COSAFA Cup
Senegal vs Mozambique
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mozambique Compare

Top Goalscorer Catamo G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.55
Avg xA / game 0.35

Senegal Compare

Top Goalscorer Jackson N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.89

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mozambique 11 / 100
Senegal 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mozambique Senegal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Senegal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mozambique's goal record stands at 65% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Senegal's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Defensive concern: Senegal conceded in 39% of 44 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Mozambique VS Senegal
0.43 Goals Scored 1.5
1.71 Goals Conceded 1
57% Over 1.5 63%
43% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mozambique

(Home)
25 Sept
Mozambique
1 : 1
Senegal
09 Jun
Indonesia
1 : 0
Mozambique
07 Jun
Oman
4 : 1
Mozambique
05 Jan
Nigeria
4 : 0
Mozambique
31 Dec
Mozambique
1 : 2
Cameroon
Page 1 of 7

Senegal

(Away)
25 Sept
Mozambique
1 : 1
Senegal
01 Jul
Belgium
3 : 2
Senegal
26 Jun
Senegal
5 : 0
Iraq
23 Jun
Norway
3 : 2
Senegal
16 Jun
France
3 : 1
Senegal
Page 1 of 9

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
2 Niger 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
3 Lesotho 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
4 Gabon 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Malawi 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
2 Egypt 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
3 Angola 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
4 South Sudan 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivory Coast 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
2 Gambia 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
3 Somalia 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
4 Ghana 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kenya 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 South Africa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Guinea 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Eritrea 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
2 Zimbabwe 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
3 Sierra Leone 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
4 Equatorial Guinea 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mauritania 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
2 Benin 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
3 Burkina Faso 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
4 Central Africa 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
2 Namibia 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
3 Congo 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
4 Comoros 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botswana 1 0 1 0 2:2 1
2 Uganda 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
3 Libya 1 0 1 0 2:2 1
4 Tunisia 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
2 Togo 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
3 Burundi 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
4 Zambia 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sudan 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
2 Senegal 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
3 Mozambique 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
4 Ethiopia 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rwanda 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
2 Mali 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
3 Cape Verde 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
4 Liberia 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guinea Bissau 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
2 Nigeria 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
3 Madagascar 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
4 Tanzania 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)