Sport Picks

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Senegal vs Sudan

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Ibn Batouta, Tanger
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Abdallah A.
Assist: Khidir W.
13'
Jakobs I.
29' Event
Gueye P.
Assist: Mane S.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Senegal advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Senegal
15%
Draws
36%
Sudan
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Senegal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Sudan haven't matched Senegal's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Senegal's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Senegal have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Senegal, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Senegal Clean Sheet 68%
Sudan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Senegal Sudan
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 16 6
Draws 5 9
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 2 0.67
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.15
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 0.48
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 3, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Senegal vs Sudan
3:1
Sep 5, 2025 World Championship
Senegal vs Sudan
2:0
Aug 29, 2025 African Nations Championship
Sudan vs Senegal
1:2
Aug 19, 2025 African Nations Championship
Sudan vs Senegal
0:0
Mar 22, 2025 World Championship
Sudan vs Senegal
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Senegal Compare

Top Goalscorer Gueye P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Mbaye I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sudan Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdallah A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.44
Avg xA / game 0.27

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Senegal 86 / 100
Sudan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Senegal Sudan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Senegal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Senegal found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Sudan conceded in 63% of 27 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Sudan registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Senegal VS Sudan
1.75 Goals Scored 0.33
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.33
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 33%
13% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Senegal

(Home)
01 Jul
Belgium
3 : 2
Senegal
26 Jun
Senegal
5 : 0
Iraq
23 Jun
Norway
3 : 2
Senegal
16 Jun
France
3 : 1
Senegal
09 Jun
Saudi Arabia
0 : 0
Senegal
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Sudan

(Away)
03 Jan
Senegal
3 : 1
Sudan
31 Dec
Sudan
0 : 2
Burkina Faso
28 Dec
Equatorial Guinea
0 : 1
Sudan
24 Dec
Algeria
3 : 0
Sudan
09 Dec
Bahrain
3 : 1
Sudan
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Mali 2
Tunisia 1
Senegal 3
Sudan 1
Egypt 3
Benin 1
Ivory Coast 3
Burkina Faso 0
Algeria 1
D.R. Congo 0
Nigeria 4
Mozambique 0
South Africa 1
Cameroon 2
Morocco 1
Tanzania 0
Quarter-finals
Mali 0
Senegal 1
Egypt 3
Ivory Coast 2
Algeria 0
Nigeria 2
Cameroon 0
Morocco 2
Semi-finals
Senegal 1
Egypt 0
Nigeria 0
Morocco 1
Final
Senegal 0
Morocco 3
Egypt 0
Nigeria 1