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Senegal vs Uganda

World World

Friendly International 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Senegal play Uganda in the Friendly International 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Senegal averaged 2 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Uganda averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Senegal won 2, Uganda won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Aug 23, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.21 for Senegal and 0.54 for Uganda. This points to a Senegal double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Senegal
16%
Draws
37%
Uganda
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Senegal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Senegal picked up more points recently compared to Uganda.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.21 vs 0.54 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Senegal Clean Sheet 30%
Uganda Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Senegal Uganda
Matches Played 31 24
Wins 17 11
Draws 5 3
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 2 1.21
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2025 African Nations Championship
Uganda vs Senegal
0:1
Jul 24, 2025 Friendly International
Senegal vs Uganda
1:2
Jan 18, 2023 African Nations Championship
Senegal vs Uganda
0:1
Jul 5, 2019 Africa Cup of Nations
Uganda vs Senegal
0:1
Jun 5, 2017 Friendly International
Senegal vs Uganda
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Senegal Compare

Top Goalscorer Koita M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Uganda Compare

Top Goalscorer Odong A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.3
Avg xA / game 0.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Senegal 48 / 100
Uganda 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Senegal Uganda

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Senegal or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Senegal attacking → ← attacking Uganda

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Senegal scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Uganda let in goals in 63% of their last 24 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Senegal went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Uganda lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 36
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.33
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.67