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Septemvri Simitli vs Natsional Sofia

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-West National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
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AI Match Summary

The Third League - South-West game between Septemvri Simitli and Natsional Sofia finished 3-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Septemvri Simitli
35%
Draws
13%
Natsional Sofia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Septemvri Simitli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Septemvri Simitli carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Septemvri Simitli's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Septemvri Simitli Clean Sheet 20%
Natsional Sofia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Septemvri Simitli Natsional Sofia
Matches Played 32 5
Wins 16 0
Draws 5 2
Losses 11 3
Goals Scored 1.5 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.06 2.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Third League - South-West
Septemvri Simitli vs Natsional Sofia
3:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Septemvri Simitli 85 / 100
Natsional Sofia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Septemvri Simitli Natsional Sofia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Septemvri Simitli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Natsional Sofia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 100% of 5 matches.

H2H data points to 6.00 goals as a typical output.

Septemvri Simitli found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (32 games).

Septemvri Simitli went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Septemvri Simitli VS Natsional Sofia
1.75 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 67%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Septemvri Simitli

(Home)
29 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
3 : 3
Natsional Sofia
22 Aug
Chavdar Etropole
4 : 2
Septemvri Simitli
15 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
0 : 0
CSKA Sofia III
08 Aug
Balkan Botevgrad
1 : 2
Septemvri Simitli
01 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
2 : 0
Kostinbrod
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Natsional Sofia

(Away)
29 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
3 : 3
Natsional Sofia
22 Aug
Natsional Sofia
0 : 3
Strumska Slava
15 Aug
Oborishte Panagyurishte
3 : 1
Natsional Sofia
08 Aug
Natsional Sofia
2 : 2
Bansko
01 Aug
Minyor Pernik
1 : 0
Natsional Sofia