Sport Picks

Bulgaria

efbet League 2025/2026 Stadion Dragalevtsi

Septemvri Sofia

1 - 0

Spartak Varna

Our Tip

Match Events

Fourrier B.

Assist: Fontaine N.

15'

Ozornwafor V.

35'

Lozev D.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The efbet League 2025/2026 game between Septemvri Sofia and Spartak Varna finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Septemvri Sofia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Septemvri Sofia

40%

Draws

29%

Spartak Varna

Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

Spartak Varna have managed 1.13 goals a game lately — Septemvri Sofia are scoring more at 1.63.
40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
Regular efbet League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 35%

Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 3%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%

Septemvri Sofia Clean Sheet 20%

Spartak Varna Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Septemvri Sofia	Spartak Varna
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	10	10
Draws	7	7
Losses	12	12
Goals Scored	1.63	1.13
Goals Conceded	0.75	0.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2026 efbet League

Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna

Possession: 55% - 47% Cards: 2 - 4

1:0

Apr 16, 2026 efbet League

Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna

Possession: 55% - 59% Cards: 1 - 1

0:0

Nov 7, 2025 efbet League

Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia

Possession: 45% - 58% Cards: 2 - 4

1:4

Mar 16, 2025 efbet League

Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia

Possession: 43% - 41% Cards: 4 - 3

4:2

Sep 30, 2024 efbet League

Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna

Possession: 43% - 59% Cards: 3 - 3

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Septemvri Sofia Compare

Top Goalscorer Fourrier B.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Spartak Varna Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Septemvri Sofia 32 / 100

Spartak Varna 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Septemvri Sofia Spartak Varna

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Septemvri Sofia scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Spartak Varna has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Septemvri Sofia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Septemvri Sofia VS Spartak Varna

1.63 Goals Scored 1.13

0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63

75% Over 1.5 63%

38% Over 2.5 25%

13% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
9	Botev Vratsa	37	13	14	10	36:32	53
10	Lok. Sofia	37	11	14	12	51:48	47
11	Slavia Sofia	37	12	10	15	42:44	46
12	Spartak Varna	37	8	13	16	35:57	37
13	Septemvri Sofia	37	9	9	19	32:64	36
14	Beroe	37	7	13	17	28:52	34
15	Dobrudzha	37	8	7	22	28:52	31
16	Montana	37	4	11	22	21:55	23