Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League 2025/2026 Stadion Dragalevtsi, Sofia
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Fourrier B.
Assist: Fontaine N.
15'
Ozornwafor V.
35'
Lozev D.

AI Match Summary

The efbet League 2025/2026 game between Septemvri Sofia and Spartak Varna finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Septemvri Sofia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Septemvri Sofia
35%
Draws
28%
Spartak Varna
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Septemvri Sofia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Septemvri Sofia come out ahead of Spartak Varna on wins alone.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Septemvri Sofia taking it.
  • Regular efbet League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Septemvri Sofia Clean Sheet 68%
Spartak Varna Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Septemvri Sofia Spartak Varna
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 8 9
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 0.97 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 17, 2026 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
0:1
May 14, 2026 efbet League
Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna
1:0
Apr 16, 2026 efbet League
Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna
0:0
Nov 7, 2025 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
1:4
Mar 16, 2025 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Septemvri Sofia Compare

Top Goalscorer Fourrier B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Spartak Varna Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Septemvri Sofia 68 / 100
Spartak Varna 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Septemvri Sofia Spartak Varna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Septemvri Sofia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Septemvri Sofia scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Spartak Varna has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Septemvri Sofia remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Septemvri Sofia VS Spartak Varna
0.88 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Septemvri Sofia

(Home)
19 Sept
Septemvri Sofia
0 : 3
Botev Plovdiv
14 Sept
Ludogorets
2 : 1
Septemvri Sofia
04 Sept
Septemvri Sofia
2 : 3
Botev Vratsa
28 Aug
Slavia Sofia
1 : 1
Septemvri Sofia
23 Aug
Septemvri Sofia
1 : 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia
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Spartak Varna

(Away)
13 Sept
Slavia Sofia
0 : 0
Spartak Varna
05 Sept
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
CSKA Sofia
30 Aug
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
Ludogorets
22 Aug
Levski Sofia
6 : 0
Spartak Varna
17 Aug
Spartak Varna
0 : 1
Septemvri Sofia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
9 Botev Vratsa 37 13 14 10 36:32 53
10 Lok. Sofia 37 11 14 12 51:48 47
11 Slavia Sofia 37 12 10 15 42:44 46
12 Spartak Varna 37 8 13 16 35:57 37
13 Septemvri Sofia 37 9 9 19 32:64 36
14 Beroe 37 7 13 17 28:52 34
15 Dobrudzha 37 8 7 22 28:52 31
16 Montana 37 4 11 22 21:55 23
Relegation - efbet League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Vtora liga (Main)