Sport Picks

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SER Caxias do Sul vs Ypiranga FC

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho Estadio Francisco Stedile
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SER Caxias do Sul play Ypiranga FC in the Gaucho. It looks like a close match. Recently, SER Caxias do Sul averaged 0.97 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Ypiranga FC averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, SER Caxias do Sul won 2, Ypiranga FC won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 27, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for SER Caxias do Sul and 0.88 for Ypiranga FC. This points to a SER Caxias do Sul double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
SER Caxias do Sul
25%
Draws
33%
Ypiranga FC
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: SER Caxias do Sul

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • SER Caxias do Sul picked up more points recently compared to Ypiranga FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
SER Caxias do Sul Clean Sheet 25%
Ypiranga FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SER Caxias do Sul Ypiranga FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 10
Draws 9 8
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 0.97 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2026 Serie C
SER Caxias do Sul vs Ypiranga FC
2:1
Feb 6, 2026 Gaucho
SER Caxias do Sul vs Ypiranga FC
0:2
Aug 3, 2025 Serie C
Ypiranga FC vs SER Caxias do Sul
0:1
Aug 7, 2024 Serie C
Ypiranga FC vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:0
Jan 24, 2024 Gaucho
Ypiranga FC vs SER Caxias do Sul
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SER Caxias do Sul Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Ypiranga FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Cleiton
1 Goals
Assists Leader Danielzinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SER Caxias do Sul 43 / 100
Ypiranga FC 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SER Caxias do Sul Ypiranga FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: SER Caxias do Sul or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

SER Caxias do Sul attacking → ← attacking Ypiranga FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SER Caxias do Sul scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Ypiranga FC let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

SER Caxias do Sul went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Ypiranga FC lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 38
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63