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Sergipe vs Dorense

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Jussimar
(Penalty)
37' Event
Pereira Neto J. A.
(Penalty)
70' Event
Andrey Dias

AI Match Summary

Sergipe in this Sergipano matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sergipe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Sergipe
20%
Draws
48%
Dorense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Dorense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Sergipe have won more games recently than Dorense.
  • Sergipe are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Sergipano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Sergipe have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Sergipe Clean Sheet 68%
Dorense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sergipe Dorense
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 9 5
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 1.21 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Dorense
2:1
Feb 1, 2025 Sergipano
Dorense vs Sergipe
0:1
Feb 17, 2024 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Dorense
1:0
Jan 14, 2023 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Dorense
1:0
Apr 18, 2021 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Dorense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sergipe Compare

Top Goalscorer Andrey Dias
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Dorense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sergipe 95 / 100
Dorense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sergipe Dorense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sergipe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sergipe's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Dorense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Difficult form: Dorense registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sergipe VS Dorense
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 3.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sergipe

(Home)
27 Jun
Sergipe
0 : 1
ASA
21 Jun
ASA
1 : 1
Sergipe
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
31 May
Decisao
3 : 2
Sergipe
23 May
Sergipe
0 : 1
Treze PB
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Dorense

(Away)
14 Feb
Atletico Gloriense
5 : 0
Dorense
11 Feb
Dorense
1 : 2
Confianca
07 Feb
Sergipe
2 : 1
Dorense
04 Feb
Itabaiana
3 : 0
Dorense
31 Jan
Dorense
1 : 0
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)