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Sergipe vs Guarany SE

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Sergipano
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Marlon Martins
41' Event
Everton

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano game between Sergipe and Guarany SE finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Sergipe
40%
Draws
29%
Guarany SE
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sergipe come out ahead of Guarany SE on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Sergipano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Sergipe have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Sergipe Clean Sheet 68%
Guarany SE Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sergipe Guarany SE
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 19 14
Draws 10 6
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.13 0.33
Goals Conceded 1.13 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Guarany SE
1:1
Feb 22, 2025 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Guarany SE
4:0
Jan 26, 2019 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Sergipe
0:1
Feb 5, 2016 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Sergipe
1:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sergipe Compare

Top Goalscorer Marlon Martins
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Guarany SE Compare

Top Goalscorer Everton
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.3
Avg xA / game 0.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sergipe 42 / 100
Guarany SE 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sergipe Guarany SE

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sergipe scored in 86% of their last 37 games.

Defensive concern: Guarany SE conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Guarany SE lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sergipe VS Guarany SE
1.13 Goals Scored 0.33
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 33%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sergipe

(Home)
27 Jun
Sergipe
0 : 1
ASA
21 Jun
ASA
1 : 1
Sergipe
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
31 May
Decisao
3 : 2
Sergipe
23 May
Sergipe
0 : 1
Treze PB
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Guarany SE

(Away)
21 Feb
Confianca
1 : 0
Guarany SE
14 Feb
Itabaiana
1 : 1
Guarany SE
11 Feb
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Falcon
08 Feb
Guarany SE
2 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
05 Feb
Confianca
1 : 0
Guarany SE
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sergipe962113:620
2Itabaiana952212:417
3Lagarto944116:816
4Confianca943210:615
5Guarany SE933310:1012
6America de Propria92618:812
7Falcon93248:1011
8Atletico Gloriense931514:1310
9Dorense92169:237
10Desportiva Aracaju90275:172
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)