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Sergipe vs Guarany SE

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano
Sergipe Logo

Sergipe

1 - 1
FT
Guarany SE Logo

Guarany SE

Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Marlon Martins
41' Event
Everton
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano game between Sergipe and Guarany SE finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Sergipe
30%
Draws
47%
Guarany SE
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guarany SE

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sergipe come out ahead of Guarany SE on wins alone.
  • 23% — that's where the model lands on Sergipe taking it.
  • Regular Sergipano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Sergipe have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Sergipe Clean Sheet 68%
Guarany SE Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sergipe Guarany SE
Matches Played 36 30
Wins 19 11
Draws 9 7
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.31 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.77 0.96
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Guarany SE
1:1
Feb 22, 2025 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Guarany SE
4:0
Jan 26, 2019 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Sergipe
0:1
Feb 5, 2016 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Sergipe
1:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sergipe Compare

Top Goalscorer Marlon Martins
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.89

Guarany SE Compare

Top Goalscorer Everton
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sergipe 59 / 100
Guarany SE 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sergipe Guarany SE

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sergipe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sergipe scored in 83% of their last 36 games.

Defensive concern: Guarany SE conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Guarany SE lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sergipe VS Guarany SE
1.75 Goals Scored 0.8
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.8
88% Over 1.5 80%
63% Over 2.5 40%
38% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Sergipe

(Home)
27 Jun
Sergipe
0 : 1
ASA
21 Jun
ASA
1 : 1
Sergipe
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
31 May
Decisao
3 : 2
Sergipe
23 May
Sergipe
0 : 1
Treze PB
Page 1 of 8

Guarany SE

(Away)
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
29 Jul
Falcon
3 : 0
Guarany SE
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)