Sport Picks
Serpa vs Moncarapachense
Portugal
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 
Match Events
3'
3'
Henriques Aguiar T. N.
4'
4'
Costa Vasconcellos I.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
35%
35%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Serpa average 1.07 goals a game right now, well clear of Moncarapachense's 0.9.
- 36% — that's where the model lands on Serpa taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Serpa Clean Sheet 18%
Moncarapachense Clean Sheet 19%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Serpa | Moncarapachense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 9 |
| Draws | 10 | 10 |
| Losses | 11 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.07 | 0.9 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.3 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.71 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 7, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Serpa vs Moncarapachense
1:1
Sep 14, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moncarapachense vs Serpa
1:1
Mar 2, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moncarapachense vs Serpa
0:0
Nov 3, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Serpa vs Moncarapachense
2:0
Feb 18, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Serpa vs Moncarapachense
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Serpa Compare
Top Goalscorer Costa Vasconcellos I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.55
Avg xA / game 0.35
Moncarapachense Compare
Top Goalscorer Henriques Aguiar T. N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Serpa 36 / 100
Moncarapachense 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Serpa Moncarapachense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Serpa's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Defensive concern: Moncarapachense conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Solid form: Serpa remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Serpa VS Moncarapachense
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.29
63% Over 1.5 29%
63% Over 2.5 14%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Serpa
(Home) 26 Sept
Real SC
1 : 1 Serpa
20 Sept
Serpa
1 : 2 Louletano
13 Sept
Lagoa
0 : 0 Serpa
06 Sept
Serpa
1 : 1 1º Dezembro
29 Aug
Serpa
2 : 0 Grandolense
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Serpa
1 : 2 Louletano
06 Sept
Serpa
1 : 1 1º Dezembro
29 Aug
Serpa
2 : 0 Grandolense
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2 Vitoria Setubal
12 Apr
Serpa
0 : 1 Alverca B
Page 1 of 3
Moncarapachense
(Away) 18 Apr
O Elvas CAD
0 : 0 Moncarapachense
12 Apr
Moncarapachense
0 : 1 Juv. Evora
04 Apr
Louletano
1 : 0 Moncarapachense
22 Mar
Moncarapachense
2 : 0 Sintrense
15 Mar
Portimonense B
0 : 3 Moncarapachense
Page 1 of 6
18 Apr
O Elvas CAD
0 : 0 Moncarapachense
04 Apr
Louletano
1 : 0 Moncarapachense
15 Mar
Portimonense B
0 : 3 Moncarapachense
01 Mar
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
0 : 1 Moncarapachense
22 Feb
Lagoa
2 : 1 Moncarapachense
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louletano | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 36:15 | 50 |
| 2 | Malveira | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 38:23 | 47 |
| 3 | Alverca B | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 49:32 | 47 |
| 4 | Juv. Evora | 26 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 36:23 | 46 |
| 5 | GD Alcochetense | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 33:22 | 41 |
| 6 | Sintrense | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 30:25 | 40 |
| 7 | Lagoa | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 44:34 | 39 |
| 8 | O Elvas CAD | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 33:29 | 34 |
| 9 | Serpa | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 28:34 | 34 |
| 10 | Oriental | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 29:35 | 32 |
| 11 | Moncarapachense | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 21:21 | 31 |
| 12 | Portimonense B | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 19:42 | 22 |
| 13 | Industria | 26 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 20:45 | 14 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama Vidigueira | 26 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 20:56 | 14 |
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
