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Serpa vs Moura AC

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025
Serpa Logo

Serpa

2 - 0
FT
Moura AC Logo

Moura AC

Our Tip

Match Events

56' Event
Mendes L.
67' Event
Sonhi Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 game between Serpa and Moura AC finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Serpa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Serpa
35%
Draws
26%
Moura AC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Serpa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Serpa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Serpa a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Serpa Clean Sheet 19%
Moura AC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serpa Moura AC
Matches Played 42 32
Wins 19 9
Draws 12 6
Losses 11 17
Goals Scored 1.4 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.12 1.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 19, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Serpa vs Moura AC
2:0
Aug 25, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moura AC vs Serpa
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serpa Compare

Top Goalscorer Mendes L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sonhi Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Moura AC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serpa 58 / 100
Moura AC 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serpa Moura AC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serpa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serpa scored in 81% of their last 42 games.

Moura AC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Serpa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serpa VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Serpa

(Home)
26 Sept
Real SC
1 : 1
Serpa
20 Sept
Serpa
1 : 2
Louletano
13 Sept
Lagoa
0 : 0
Serpa
06 Sept
Serpa
1 : 1
1º Dezembro
29 Aug
Serpa
2 : 0
Grandolense
Page 1 of 9

Moura AC

(Away)
13 Apr
Moura AC
1 : 2
Amora
06 Apr
Lagoa
0 : 1
Moura AC
29 Mar
Moura AC
1 : 1
Estrela da Amadora B
16 Mar
Moura AC
1 : 2
Sintrense
09 Mar
Moura AC
0 : 1
Louletano
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitano GC 26 18 4 4 57:14 58
2 Amora 26 17 6 3 41:19 57
3 Sintrense 26 16 4 6 39:26 52
4 Moncarapachense 26 15 6 5 39:19 51
5 Louletano 26 15 5 6 44:20 50
6 Serpa 26 13 6 7 42:27 45
7 Estrela da Amadora B 26 7 9 10 35:31 30
8 Lagoa 26 7 9 10 26:35 30
9 Industria 26 8 5 13 35:42 29
10 Fabril do Barreiro 26 6 9 11 21:32 27
11 Moura AC 26 7 5 14 27:50 26
12 Operario 26 6 5 15 22:43 23
13 FC Barreirense 26 5 7 14 31:47 22
14 Estrela Vendas Novas 26 1 2 23 12:66 5
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)