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Serra Macaense vs Niteroiense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Lukinha
60' Event
Cafu
90' Event
Jonnes

AI Match Summary

Niteroiense in this Carioca B2 2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Niteroiense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Serra Macaense
40%
Draws
29%
Niteroiense
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Niteroiense lately — more wins on the board than Serra Macaense.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Serra Macaense Clean Sheet 19%
Niteroiense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Macaense Niteroiense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 11 9
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 1.13 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 6, 2024 Carioca B2
Serra Macaense vs Niteroiense
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serra Macaense Compare

Top Goalscorer Lukinha
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Niteroiense Compare

Top Goalscorer Cafu
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jonnes
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra Macaense 32 / 100
Niteroiense 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Macaense Niteroiense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Serra Macaense's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Niteroiense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Serra Macaense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serra Macaense VS Niteroiense
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra Macaense

(Home)
09 Nov
Belford Roxo
2 : 0
Serra Macaense
06 Nov
Serra Macaense
2 : 1
Macae
02 Nov
FC Rio de Janeiro
0 : 2
Serra Macaense
26 Oct
Serra Macaense
1 : 0
Goytacaz
19 Oct
Santa Cruz RJ
0 : 0
Serra Macaense
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Niteroiense

(Away)
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
05 Nov
Niteroiense
0 : 0
Duque de Caxias
01 Nov
Friburguense
0 : 1
Niteroiense
24 Oct
Campo Grande
1 : 1
Niteroiense
18 Oct
Niteroiense
2 : 3
Bonsucesso
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Campo Grande1182123:626
2Bonsucesso1164120:522
3Niteroiense1163219:1221
4AA Carapebus1162323:1120
5Serra Macaense1145210:717
6Zinza1144313:816
7Barra Mansa1143412:1015
8Uni Souza1143413:1815
97 de Abril1124512:1310
10FC Rio de Janeiro1122712:238
11Mageense1120911:306
12Rio Sao Paulo112098:336
Promotion - Carioca B2 2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C 2025 (Main)