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Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2
Our Tip

Match Events

29'
46' Event
51' Event

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B2 game between Serra Macaense and Santa Cruz RJ finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Serra Macaense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Serra Macaense
15%
Draws
36%
Santa Cruz RJ
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Serra Macaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Santa Cruz RJ carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Serra Macaense a 49% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Carioca B2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Serra Macaense Clean Sheet 68%
Santa Cruz RJ Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Macaense Santa Cruz RJ
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 12 18
Draws 10 4
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.29 2.06
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2026 Carioca B2
Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ
3:0
Oct 19, 2025 Carioca B2
Santa Cruz RJ vs Serra Macaense
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra Macaense 95 / 100
Santa Cruz RJ 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Macaense Santa Cruz RJ

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serra Macaense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serra Macaense's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Santa Cruz RJ let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Serra Macaense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serra Macaense VS Santa Cruz RJ
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra Macaense

(Home)
05 Oct
Serra Macaense
3 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
01 Oct
Cardoso Moreira
2 : 3
Serra Macaense
27 Sept
Serra Macaense
2 : 1
FC Rio de Janeiro
20 Sept
Buzios
0 : 3
Serra Macaense
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
Page 1 of 6

Santa Cruz RJ

(Away)
05 Oct
Serra Macaense
3 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
01 Oct
Belford Roxo
3 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
27 Sept
Santa Cruz RJ
1 : 0
Cardoso Moreira
21 Sept
FC Rio de Janeiro
1 : 3
Santa Cruz RJ
13 Sept
Santa Cruz RJ
3 : 0
Buzios
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Friburguense 7 5 2 0 12:4 17
2 Serra Macaense 7 4 1 2 14:8 13
3 Cardoso Moreira 7 4 1 2 9:5 13
4 Belford Roxo 7 3 3 1 14:6 12
5 Santa Cruz RJ 7 4 0 3 9:8 12
6 Paduano EC 7 3 2 2 9:6 11
7 FC Rio de Janeiro 7 3 1 3 11:7 10
8 7 de Abril 7 3 1 3 10:10 10
9 Campos AA 7 2 3 2 11:11 9
10 Barra Mansa 7 1 4 2 6:10 7
11 Buzios 7 1 0 6 5:18 3
12 Paraty 7 0 0 7 4:21 0
Promotion - Carioca B2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C 2027 (Main)