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Serra vs Forte

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba 2 2025 Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa, Serra
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AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Serra advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Serra
35%
Draws
49%
Forte
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Forte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Serra carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Serra's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Serra have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Serra, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Serra have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Serra Clean Sheet 20%
Forte Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Forte
Matches Played 30 21
Wins 16 7
Draws 3 8
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.5 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2026 Capixaba
Forte vs Serra
2:0
Oct 11, 2025 Capixaba 2
Serra vs Forte
1:0
Aug 24, 2025 Capixaba 2
Forte vs Serra
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra 42 / 100
Forte 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Forte

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Serra scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Forte let in goals in 52% of their last 21 matches.

Games between these two average 1.33 goals.

Serra went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serra VS Forte
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra

(Home)
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
30 May
Serra
1 : 1
Porto Vitoria
24 May
Rio Branco-VN
1 : 0
Serra
20 May
Vitoria ES
3 : 2
Serra
09 May
Serra
2 : 3
Vilavelhense
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Forte

(Away)
01 Mar
Vitoria ES
4 : 1
Forte
23 Feb
Forte
1 : 1
Vitoria ES
12 Feb
Forte
0 : 1
Desportiva Ferroviaria
07 Feb
Rio Branco ES
0 : 0
Forte
05 Feb
Forte
0 : 0
Vitoria ES
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Serra 5
Linhares Futebol Clube 2
Estrela do Norte 1
Forte 3
Final
Serra 1
Forte 0