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Serrano FC vs AA Carapebus - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Serrano FC host AA Carapebus in the Carioca B1. Little to choose between these two on current form. Serrano FC have averaged 1.11 scored and 1.17 conceded recently, against AA Carapebus's 1.11 scored and 1.36 conceded. Head-to-head, Serrano FC have won 0 to AA Carapebus's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Oct 18, 2025, ending 0:0. The numbers (0.96 xG vs 1.28) point toward Serrano FC. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Serrano FC
30%
Draws
8%
AA Carapebus
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Serrano FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • AA Carapebus haven't matched Serrano FC's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Serrano FC a 62% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Carioca B1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Serrano FC Clean Sheet 19%
AA Carapebus Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serrano FC AA Carapebus
Matches Played 35 28
Wins 13 8
Draws 13 6
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.11 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 0.96 1.28
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2025 Carioca B1
AA Carapebus vs Serrano FC
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serrano FC 85 / 100
AA Carapebus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serrano FC AA Carapebus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serrano FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serrano FC's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

AA Carapebus let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Serrano FC has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

AA Carapebus lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serrano FC VS AA Carapebus
0.5 Goals Scored 0.57
2 Goals Conceded 1.43
75% Over 1.5 29%
50% Over 2.5 29%
25% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Serrano FC

(Home)
03 Oct
Artsul
3 : 4
Serrano FC
26 Sept
Serrano FC
1 : 1
Campo Grande
19 Sept
Audax RJ
0 : 1
Serrano FC
12 Sept
Serrano FC
0 : 0
Goytacaz
05 Sept
Niteroiense
2 : 0
Serrano FC
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AA Carapebus

(Away)
03 Oct
Macae
4 : 3
AA Carapebus
25 Sept
AA Carapebus
0 : 1
Sao Cristovao
19 Sept
Artsul
0 : 0
AA Carapebus
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4
Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Campo Grande
1 : 0
AA Carapebus
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Niteroiense 5 4 1 0 7:1 13
2 Goncalense 6 2 4 0 7:4 10
3 Goytacaz 5 3 1 1 5:4 10
4 Duque de Caxias 5 3 0 2 9:5 9
5 Artsul 6 2 3 1 9:7 9
6 Campo Grande 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
7 Serrano FC 5 2 2 1 6:6 8
8 Macae 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
9 Sao Cristovao 5 1 2 2 3:4 5
10 Nova Cidade 5 0 2 3 3:8 2
11 AA Carapebus 5 0 1 4 4:10 1
12 Audax RJ 5 0 1 4 2:8 1
Promotion - Carioca B1 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2027 (Main)