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Sertanense vs GD Peniche

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Rodrigues T.
34' Event
Sousa Lamas D. A.
68' Event
Santos M.
Assist: Xavier D.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Sertanense
20%
Draws
48%
GD Peniche
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: GD Peniche

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • GD Peniche have won more games recently than Sertanense.
  • 32% — that's where the model lands on Sertanense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 68%
GD Peniche Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sertanense GD Peniche
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 5 9
Draws 11 8
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 0.83 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 0.80 1.23
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 12, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs GD Peniche
1:1
Aug 18, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs Sertanense
3:2
Jan 7, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs Sertanense
2:1
Aug 20, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs GD Peniche
1:0
Feb 13, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Sertanense vs GD Peniche
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sertanense Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.4

GD Peniche Compare

Top Goalscorer Sousa Lamas D. A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.12
Avg xA / game 0.68

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sertanense 50 / 100
GD Peniche 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sertanense GD Peniche

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sertanense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Peniche's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

GD Peniche's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Sertanense found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Sertanense VS GD Peniche
0.6 Goals Scored 1.25
1.2 Goals Conceded 1
60% Over 1.5 75%
20% Over 2.5 38%
20% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sertanense

(Home)
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0
Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3
Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
13 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 0
Sertanense
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GD Peniche

(Away)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
Uniao Da Serra
3 : 1
GD Peniche
04 Apr
GD Peniche
0 : 2
SB Castelo Branco
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
22 Mar
Electrico FC
4 : 2
GD Peniche
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 O Elvas CAD 26 20 5 1 41:10 65
2 Fatima 26 14 7 5 30:12 49
3 Arronches Benfica 26 13 9 4 27:17 48
4 GD Peniche 26 10 9 7 31:23 39
5 Os Marialvas 26 9 10 7 30:28 37
6 Mortagua FC 26 8 13 5 23:21 37
7 Marinhense 26 9 9 8 24:21 36
8 Alverca B 26 9 8 9 28:25 35
9 SB Castelo Branco 26 8 10 8 23:21 34
10 SC Pombal 26 8 8 10 29:34 32
11 Uniao de Coimbra 26 6 7 13 26:44 25
12 Sertanense 26 4 9 13 23:33 21
13 Alcains 26 4 6 16 17:36 18
14 Pero Pinheiro 26 2 6 18 12:39 12
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)