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Sertanense vs Malveira

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense Logo

Sertanense

1 - 1
FT
Malveira Logo

Malveira

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
50' Event
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Sertanense
30%
Draws
47%
Malveira
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Malveira

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Malveira have won more games recently than Sertanense.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Sertanense taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 17%
Malveira Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sertanense Malveira
Matches Played 34 33
Wins 7 12
Draws 12 11
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Malveira
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sertanense 41 / 100
Malveira 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sertanense Malveira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sertanense scored in 62% of their last 34 outings.

Malveira has conceded goals in 73% of their last 33 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Difficult form: Malveira registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sertanense VS Malveira
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sertanense

(Home)
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0
Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3
Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
13 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 0
Sertanense
Page 1 of 7

Malveira

(Away)
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
06 Sept
Malveira
3 : 0
GD Os Nazarenos
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
23 Aug
Fatima
5 : 0
Malveira
16 Aug
Malveira
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mortagua FC 4 3 1 0 9:4 10
2 Oliveira Hospital 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
3 Os Marialvas 4 3 0 1 8:2 9
4 Uniao Da Serra 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
5 O Elvas CAD 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
6 Naval 1893 4 2 0 2 6:4 6
7 Nogueirense 4 1 3 0 8:7 6
8 SB Castelo Branco 4 2 0 2 7:9 6
9 Fatima 4 1 1 2 6:5 4
10 Malveira 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
11 Sertanense 3 0 2 1 3:5 2
12 Fazendense 3 0 1 2 5:7 1
13 Alverca B 3 0 0 3 1:4 0
14 GD Os Nazarenos 4 0 0 4 1:10 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)